China targets 50% non-fossil power generation by 2030 in 15th Five-Year plan

China aims to build a clean, low-carbon, secure and efficient energy system by 2030, with non-fossil fuels becoming the main source of power generation while coal, oil and gas remain key supply-security backstops, according to the country's 15th Five-Year (2026-2030) energy plan issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration June 25.

The plan targets total domestic energy production capacity of 5.8 billion metric tons of standard coal equivalent by 2030, up 13.1% from the 2025 target. It also calls for coal and oil consumption to peak by then, with non-fossil energy's share of total energy consumption expected to reach 25%, up 3.3 percentage points from 2025.

In the power sector, non-fossil sources are targeted to account for 50% of total electricity generation by 2030, up from 42.3% in 2025. Wind and solar power are expected to exceed 50% of total installed power capacity, becoming the largest component of China's power generation fleet, according to the plan.

The plan also sets a target for "new energy" generation, mainly wind and solar, to reach 30% of total power output by 2030, supported by a new assessment system for renewable power consumption and grid integration.

Conventional hydropower capacity is expected to reach about 410 gigawatts by 2030, while nuclear power capacity in operation is targeted at about 110 GW.

Clean power expands, fossil fuels retained

Despite the transition toward non-fossil energy, China will continue to rely on fossil fuels to safeguard energy security.

The plan calls for stronger oil and gas exploration, reserve building and infrastructure expansion to strengthen energy security under extreme supply conditions. China aims to keep annual crude oil production stable at about 200 million mt, while natural gas output is expected to continue growing.

The country will also improve its oil and gas reserve system, combining government reserves with corporate social responsibility reserves to create a more flexible and complementary storage framework.

Gas pipeline infrastructure will continue to expand under China's "one national network" strategy. The plan targets primary gas transmission capacity of 500 billion cubic meters/year by 2030.

Coal will also remain central to China's energy security strategy.

The country targets the development of five major coal supply bases, with their combined output expected to account for more than 80% of national coal production by 2030. China also aims to build coal production capacity reserves of more than 100 million mt/year by 2030, strengthening supply resilience during periods of high demand or disruption.

Alternative fuels, markets support transition

At the same time, the plan calls for higher substitution of oil consumption through alternative fuels and new transport applications.

China will support coal-to-oil and coal-to-gas capacity and technology reserves, with strategic bases planned in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, Yulin, Shaanxi, and Jungar and Hami, Xinjiang.

The government also plans to expand non-grain biofuel ethanol, biodiesel, biomethane, sustainable aviation fuel, green ammonia and green methanol production, depending on regional conditions.

The plan targets wider deployment of new-energy heavy trucks and ships, pointing to further electrification and fuel substitution in transport.

To support these shifts, China will accelerate improvements to the energy market and pricing mechanisms suitable for a new energy system, according to the plan.

A national unified electricity market system is expected to be largely established by 2030, supporting the integration of higher renewable power volumes and improving price signals for generation, flexibility and grid balancing.

For energy markets, the plan reinforces a dual-track strategy -- accelerating the shift toward non-fossil power generation while maintaining domestic fossil fuel capacity and reserves to protect supply security.