Germany exposed to gas shortfalls if winter proves extremely cold: INES

Germany remains exposed to natural gas supply shortfalls this winter if temperatures prove exceptionally cold and so requires added impetus to fill storage, industry group INES said July 7 in its bimonthly gas scenarios report update.

"The economic framework conditions must therefore be improved so that the storage facilities can be filled more intensively before the start of winter," INES said in a statement. "This is the only way to reliably secure the gas supply even in extreme weather conditions."

About 76% of German gas storage capacity is booked, according to INES, adding that it is still "technically possible" to reach that fill level by the start of November. However, while this is adequate to cover supply needs in a warm or normal winter, INES warned that a very cold winter could strain stocks.

INES said its modeling showed a risk that colder temperatures could lead to shortfalls of up to 9 terawatt-hours/month (about 851 million cubic meters/month) in February and March 2027, with daily shortfalls as high as 2 TWh.

"The modeling clearly shows that the supply is secured for average winters," said Sebastian Heinermann, INES managing director for energy storage initiatives, in the July 7 statement. "However, in an exceptionally cold winter, the risks increase considerably. Therefore, the conditions must be created today to fill the storage facilities more and to secure the supply even against very cold temperatures."

As with much of Europe, backwardated futures prices in the German gas market have stymied stocking throughout the filling season.

"The current negative summer-winter spread makes economic storage considerably more difficult and provides little incentive to actually fill the booked capacities," INES said July 7.

The German federal government plans to begin procuring gas for a strategic reserve at the start of 2027, Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said in June. The reserve would hold about 24 TWh of gas, which represents about 9.6% of Germany's total gas storage capacity, she said.

Storage situation

Overall, German gas storage is 42.9% full, according to the latest data compiled by Gas Infrastructure Europe. At the same time, in 2025 and 2024, it reached 52.3% and 82.8%, respectively.

In particular, operator SEFE Storage, which runs the Rehden gas storage facility, has struggled in recent months to book capacity at Germany's largest storage site.

Total domestic storage must be filled to an average of 70% by Nov. 1, according to German storage rules adopted April 2025.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the German THE month-ahead gas price at Eur44.795/MWh July 6, down 1.9% from July 3.