Tariffs threaten North America's energy security opportunity: panelists

North America risks squandering a once-in-a-generation opportunity to leverage its energy resources and industrial base if tariff disputes and political disagreements continue to overshadow regional integration, panelists said during a discussion on the future of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum in Washington, D.C. on June 9.

The comments come as the three countries prepare for the 2026 review of the USMCA at a time when governments are seeking to reduce dependence on China, strengthen supply chains and secure the energy needed to support artificial intelligence, manufacturing and critical minerals development. At a White House event, US President Donald Trump said June 10 that he might not renew the agreement.

"As long as these tariff actions continue and these short-sighted debates on whether integration is a good thing continue, we won't get there," said Jay Khosla, vice president for strategy and policy at the Public Policy Forum in Canada.

North America possesses a unique combination of abundant energy resources, critical minerals, manufacturing capacity and investment capital that could make the region one of the world's most competitive economic blocs if policymakers embrace greater cooperation, panelists said June 9, adding that the deal currently in place should be valued.

"We have to be realistic about the fact that we built something pretty special here," said Kimberly Breier, former Assistant Secretary in the US State Department's Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, during the panel.

"We are extremely fortunate to have neighbors like Canada and Mexico in the US," she said.

Instead, panelists warned that political tensions risk slowing the integration that markets have already largely achieved.

"The markets, the supply chains, they're doing what they need to do, and they continue to integrate," Khosla said. "But if you look at the policies and the strategies being pursued by the three countries, they're headed in different directions," he said.

Energy emerged as the central theme of the discussion, with participants arguing that reliable and affordable energy supplies will determine whether North America can capitalize on reshoring and AI-driven industrial growth.

"If we are going to produce in the region a lot of goods that we import from China now, we will need more energy," said Antonio Ortiz Mena, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council. "If we are going to take advantage of the AI revolution, we will need many more data centers. If you don't get this right, nothing else matters."

The panel argued that energy security has become inseparable from national security as geopolitical tensions reshape global supply chains.

Participants also called for deeper cooperation on critical minerals and energy infrastructure, arguing that Canada, the US and Mexico each possess complementary advantages that should be developed jointly rather than independently.

"Energy needs to be on the table. Critical minerals need to be on the table," Breier said.

North America already enjoys advantages unmatched by most regions of the world, Khosla said, but warned that those benefits could be lost without coordinated policy.

"It is a critical moment for the continent," Khosla said, adding that if the three countries united, they could counter the dominance of China.