North American rare earths at new highs on US stockpiling, tight Chinese exports

North American prices for several critical rare earth oxides surged to fresh highs in September as buyers competed for limited non-Chinese material amid tightening Chinese export controls and stockpiling ahead of new US defense procurement restrictions.

Platts assessed terbium oxide CIF North America at $7,500/kg on Sept. 30, up 53% or $2,600/kg from the end of August. Dysprosium oxide CIF North America rose 41.3%, or to $3,250/kg, while samarium oxide CIF North America increased 25% to $1,000/kg. Data from March, when Platts launched the assessments, show the scale of the rally: terbium has climbed 53%, dysprosium 171% and samarium more than 470% since the assessments began.

The gains came even as prices in China remained largely stable. Platts assessed samarium oxide FOB China at $100/kg and terbium oxide FOB China at $1,005/kg on Sept. 30, all unchanged from a month earlier. Customers are paying a growing premium for rare earths produced outside China. Dysprosium oxide jumped 41.3% to $325/kg in September.

The rally follows mounting concerns over the availability of heavy rare earths outside China. Chinese customs data released Sept. 21 showed exports of the dual-use rare earth elements terbium, dysprosium and scandium fell to zero in August. Shipments to the United States, Japan and South Korea were also zero during the month, while exports of dual-use rare earth compounds and metals totaled just 14 mt. Exports during the first eight months of 2026 fell 61% year over year, with shipments to both the US and Japan down 99%.

"I think the run-up in North American pricing has more to do with purchasing of non-Chinese inventory rather than anything else," Chris Berry, founder and president of House Mountain Partners, told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

On Sept. 24, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to extend a rare earth trade truce for an additional two months, pushing the expiration date to Jan. 10. However, market participants said the extension has done little to alleviate concerns among consumers seeking secure non-Chinese supplies.

Jan. 1 restrictions on Chinese material

Berry said US defense contractors are increasingly focused on securing material ahead of the Jan. 1, 2027, implementation of the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement requirements that restrict the use of Chinese material in US defense supply chains.

"The defense base is realizing that the Jan. 1 date is a hard stop, though there are loopholes, and is looking to stockpile as much heavy rare earth material as possible, and there isn't that much to go around," Berry said.

Expectations of broader US restrictions on purchases of Chinese rare earth materials could further tighten the market, he added.

"This isn't a demand shock in the West, but does scream out that heavy rare earth materials are extremely difficult to obtain and are therefore seeing higher prices attached to them," Berry said.

The market's sensitivity to disruptions reflects China's dominant role across critical mineral supply chains. The International Energy Agency estimates China accounted for 61% of global rare earth mine supply and 91% of refining and processing capacity for major rare earths in 2024.

The affected materials are critical to sectors ranging from defense and aerospace to semiconductors, electronics and automotive manufacturing. Dysprosium and terbium are used to improve the performance and heat resistance of permanent magnets deployed in missile guidance systems, radar, satellites and electric vehicle traction motors. Samarium is used in high-temperature samarium-cobalt magnets for aerospace and defense applications, while rare earth materials also support lasers, sensors, optics and other advanced technologies.