INFOGRAPHIC: China's property slowdown continues to drag down rebar market

China's prolonged property downturn continued to weigh on long steel demand in April, with new home construction starts falling sharply year over year.

Mill sources and analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA said in the week of May 22 that the decline in construction steel consumption could persist through 2027, although the pace should gradually slow.

According to the latest data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, the floor space of new home sales in the first four months of the 2026 fell 10.2% year-over-year, while new home construction starts -- a major steel demand driver -- declined 22% year-over-year during the same period.

The decline in new home construction accelerated from the 20.3% drop in January-March and remains significantly below 2021 peak levels, down 74.2%.

Since the property market reached its peak in 2021 and began to slow in 2022, domestic demand for rebar, a proxy for the long steel market, has entered a prolonged downward trend.

In April, apparent rebar consumption in China fell to 15.25 million metric tons, down 14.8% year-over-year and about 28.1% below the same period in 2022.

Apparent consumption is calculated as rebar output minus net exports plus the decrease in rebar inventory, reflecting the amount consumed domestically.

Data from the NBS showed that in April 2026, 21 out of 70 large and medium-sized cities experienced month-on-month increases in new commercial residential sales prices, up from 16 cities in March and eight in January.

A macroeconomic analyst said that "there are signs that first-tier cities' new home sales are stabilizing, and since these cities often serve as a barometer for the overall property market, this is encouraging. However, whether the market has truly bottomed out still depends on the situation in the second half of the year."

"I personally think housing prices might rebound next year, but that has little to do with rebar demand. Even if prices stabilize, the recovery of new home sales and new construction will still take time," said a mill source.

In tandem with the falling demand, the Platts-assessed Chinese domestic rebar prices averaged Yuan 3,141/mt ($462/mt) from the start of 2026 till May 22, down by 1.9% year over year, and 37% lower than in the same period of 2022. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.