OECD cuts Ukraine’s steel capacity estimate to reflect losses, curtailments

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, has revised its estimate for Ukraine's annual steelmaking capacity to 8 million metric tons, steel industry association Ukrmetallurgprom said in a March 23 statement, which also shows the OECD's actual letter.

Since 2020, OECD has been estimating Ukraine's crude steelmaking capacity at 38.7 million mt/year; therefore, the capacity figure has now been reduced by almost 80%.

The revision was due to reflect the steelmaking capacity losses Ukraine incurred due to Russia's invasions in 2022 and 2014, prior to which the country was capable of 42.5 million mt/year output at its maximum run rate, according to Ukrmetallurgprom.

"After 2014, some capacities were left in the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions," Kyiv-based metals industry expert Stanislav Zinchenko told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

"Since the early 2000s, a portion of the remaining capacity has been permanently idled, with no possibility of restart. However, the OECD had continued to include them in its assessment of Ukraine's steelmaking capacity, classifying them as excess relative to current output levels," said Zinchenko.

The capacity update is also important given the OECD's role: the association monitors excess capacity in the global steel sector, he noted.

"The OECD has taken into account the evidence put forward by the Ukrainian side," said Zinchenko. "Restoring accurate information on the status and operations of Ukraine's steel sector allows us to now see that it operated at a healthy capacity utilization rate of 92.5% in 2025 [with 7.4 million mt output], exerting no pressure on global steel markets through excess capacity."