IEA head flags European exposure to longer Hormuz LNG disruptions

A longer delay to ramping up LNG exports from the Persian Gulf risks saddling the global LNG market with tighter conditions for longer, the head of the International Energy Agency warned July 21.

"This will be felt by all LNG importers, including Europe as it looks to refill its gas storage for next winter," Fatih Birol, executive director of the global energy watchdog, said in a statement published on the IEA's website.

Birol explained that so far, added exports from other producers, particularly the US and Canada, have compensated for about 70% of the volumes lost from the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

"But further delays in resuming Gulf exports risk keeping markets tighter for longer," he said.

While LNG transits via the Strait of Hormuz had started to pick up in the wake of a preliminary US-Iran agreement last month, shipments have dried up in the weeks since, as both sides resume attacks. No LNG tankers have crossed the strait since July 12, according to a July 21 report from S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

The IEA projected earlier this month that global LNG supplies would likely hold steady compared to 2025 this year if Persian Gulf exports resume in the third quarter and production from the region ramps up in the following months. A delay to that timeline, though, would risk global supply contracting year-over-year, it warned.

European struggles

Birol's assessment comes as Europe continues to struggle to fill its natural gas storage sites ahead of winter.

Stores across the EU were 54% full as of July 19, according to the latest data compiled by Gas Infrastructure Europe. At the same time in 2025 and 2024, stocks were filled to 64.7% and 82.3%, respectively.

Despite the lag, however, a group of European gas experts overseen by the European Commission recently said the EU faced "no immediate [gas] security of supply concern for winter 2026-2027."

European LNG prices have soared in recent weeks amid the resurgent fighting in the Persian Gulf. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the DES Northwest Europe LNG marker at $19.36/million British thermal unit on July 20. The index is at its highest point since March, having surged 45% since hitting a recent low in late June.