JKM March futures volume jumps 97% on year as US-Iran war upends seasonal norms

The JKM derivatives market saw traded volumes nearly double year over year in March, as the escalating conflict in the Middle East upended the typical seasonal slowdown and prompted traders to reposition across the curve, according to data compiled from four exchanges.

Total traded volume for the JKM monthly and JKM balance-month next-day futures reached 192,054 lots, equivalent to about 36.93 million mt of LNG, or 582 cargoes, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange. This figure represents a 97% year-over-year rise and a 63.8% increase from February.

March is traditionally one of the weakest months for derivatives activity as shoulder season sets in, with volumes averaging 77,390 lots over the prior three years. This year's tally was more than double that average as the Middle East conflict forced traders to adjust positions and manage risk exposure.

End-March open interest for the JKM monthly and balmo futures stood at 226,392 lots, down by 4.29% from February but up 39.94% year over year. ICE accounted for 97.01% of open interest, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange made up the remaining 6,780 lots, all in monthly futures.

The JKM Average Price Options contract volume totaled 3,830 lots, up from 1,270 lots in the previous month, and end-month open interest rose to 12,125 lots from 9,715 lots the previous month.

Source: Intercontinental Exchange, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange and European Energy Exchange

Platts JKM, the benchmark for spot LNG delivered into Northeast Asia, climbed sharply in March. The rally peaked on March 19, when the assessment reached $25.412/MMBtu, marking the highest level for the month. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.

The surge in spot prices was driven primarily by escalating geopolitical risks following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Disruptions to shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz and QatarEnergy's force majeure on several cargoes steepened risk premiums across the curve, several Asia-based sources said recently.

Prompt months saw the most concentrated trading activity, with the May, June and July 2026 contracts together totaling 63,614 lots, about 35.6% of total monthly futures volume. The May 2026 contract was the single most actively traded, accounting for 33,961 lots, or 19% of the total monthly futures volume.

The broader 2026 strip, May through December, dominated overall activity, accounting for about 68% of the total monthly futures volume, as geopolitical uncertainty concentrated positioning in near-term contracts.

Trading interest extended meaningfully into 2027, with contracts across the calendar year collectively accounting for 44,392 lots, or roughly 25% of the total monthly futures volume, suggesting that geopolitical uncertainty was prompting hedgers to extend their cover well into next year.