OECD highlights challenges for nuclear power in assisting net-zero transition

A report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's Nuclear Energy Agency has highlighted the challenges the nuclear power industry faces in raising global nuclear capacity sufficiently to make a significant contribution to the transition to zero-carbon emissions by 2050.

The July 2 report highlighted challenges in supply chain, human resources and finance as being the main barriers to rapid expansion of the global nuclear fleet and said this could limit nuclear energy's contribution to decarbonization by 2050.

More than 30 countries and a group of industrial entities and associations signed a pledge in 2023 to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050 from its current level of about 400 gigawatts.

 The NEA said in the report that to have a significant impact on nuclear capacity expansion by 2050, small modular reactor deployment would have to move relatively swiftly from the "demonstration" phase to commercial deployment and would need appropriate funding, supply chains and human resources to achieve this.

Additionally, "long-term operation of the existing nuclear fleet remains a key contributing factor in meeting global nuclear capacity targets. Most reactors in OECD countries were built in the 1970s and 1980s and many will reach the end of their initial licenses before 2040. Extending operations to 60 years and, increasingly, 80 years could preserve reliable low-carbon capacity ... and avoid the need to replace large volumes of firm generation at short notice," the report noted.

The report outlined four possible scenarios for the level of global nuclear capacity by 2050, depending on factors including supply chain development, the availability of finance and other resources for swift nuclear construction, as well as strong government backing for new nuclear capacity.

A low scenario sees global installed nuclear capacity reaching only 347 GW by 2050, "as retirements in OECD countries offset new projects and recent momentum fails to translate into sustained deployment."

Under a current trends scenario, global nuclear capacity would reach 619 GW by 2050, "driven largely by non-OECD planned and proposed projects." The scenario "assumes that feasible operating licence extensions and advanced new build projects are pursued, potentially supporting steady progress towards decarbonization goals while maintaining energy reliability.," the NEA report said.

An "ambitious" scenario sees global nuclear generation capacity reaching 883 GW by 2050, with "a larger contribution from new build and small modular reactors," the NEA said. The scenario assumes "robust investment in extending reactor licenses, commissioning all planned and proposed large-scale new builds, and adopting innovative modular construction methods for SMRs," according to the report.

The final scenario in the report is a transformative scenario under which global nuclear capacity reaches 1,324 GW by 2050. This would represent a more than tripling of current global nuclear capacity.

This scenario is "driven by long-term national capacity goals, including the US' goal to quadruple nuclear capacity by 2050 and India's target of 100 GWe  by 2047, combined with successful long-term operation (LTO), accelerated large-scale new build and significant SMR deployment," the report said.

However, the report emphasized that the transformative scenario was the only one of the four scenarios under which the tripling goal is met, a situation "requiring very high investment in new nuclear capacity across OECD countries." The report did not say that any of the scenarios were more likely.

Shifting development

In addition to a discussion of overall capacity scenarios by 2050, the report also emphasized a changing pattern in the geographical development of new nuclear capacity.

"While OECD countries currently account for around 78% of current global nuclear capacity, non-OECD countries are driving most near-term expansion: of the 70 GWe under construction, around 80% is in non-OECD countries, led by the People's Republic of China with more than 33 GWe," the report said.

Diane Cameron, the head of the OECD-NEA's nuclear technology division, said in remarks during a June 24 webinar to discuss some of the report's conclusions, that "Russia and China are, for now, leading on the deployment of both large and small modular reactors."

This "tells us that the technical risks for new large reactors or SMRs are manageable and can be overcome, this is what this non-OECD build success tells us. We know success is possible," Cameron added.

However, she also said that it was possible, if the challenges related to finance, supply chain and human resourcing are met, for the non-OECD success to be replicated in OECD countries between now and 2050.

"There is a high level of ambition around the world to increase nuclear capacity ... particularly in the tripling pledge to which countries continue to sign to and momentum for which continues to grow," according to Cameron.

"We now see a return to a focus on the security of energy supply [globally], which just reinforces the momentum behind the declaration" to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050, she added.

"Progress in meeting the [tripling] declaration is accelerating but uneven," according to Cameron, referring to the acceleration in non-OECD nuclear construction.

The OCED comprises 38 countries with highly developed market economies across the Americas, Asia-Pacific and Europe.