US-Iran truce likely to restore shipping despite questions: analysts

Analysts expect a deal between the US and Iran that will allow shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, but broader issues, such as Iran's nuclear program, are unlikely to be resolved within an initial 60-day negotiating period, they said.

Iran has demonstrated its ability to disrupt shipping through the strait, significantly increasing its leverage in negotiations and regional affairs, Ben Cahill, director for energy markets and policy at the University of Texas at Austin, said in an interview. The threat of disruption will continue to support the rationale for bypass pipelines and alternative infrastructure, he said.

"Iran's leverage is much greater than people would have thought 100 days ago," Cahill said. "They have made it clear to everyone that they have the ability to disrupt shipping."

Key uncertainties remain about the exact terms of the deal, particularly for shipping companies awaiting logistical details. Major questions include whether there will be a transit fee for the Strait of Hormuz, the timing and amount of frozen funds to be released, and specific conditions for resuming shipping.

Critical issues for vessel operators include mine removal in the strait, transit authorities to whom tankers must report, guarantees of safe passage, and designated shipping routes. In recent days, US President Donald Trump has described the deal to reopen the strait as "toll-free," contrary to some reports in Iranian media.

"I think, in principle, the Arab Gulf states are all deeply opposed to the idea that Iran would have this capacity," Cahill said. "But we'll have to see."

Continued risk

The most likely outcome from the agreement is a narrow deal that avoids renewed fighting and restores a meaningful share of Hormuz traffic, Rystad Energy said in a June 16 note. Under this scenario, Iran sanctions are gradually eased and flows through the strait recover to about 10 million barrels/day by January, the note said.

"However, a residual geopolitical risk premium of $5-$10/barrel is expected to remain, as the agreement does not fully depoliticize the strait or remove the risk of future disruption," the note said.

It is important for any lasting agreement to have predictability around the Strait and an eventual deal on nuclear, ballistic missiles, mines, and regional infrastructure, but that will be harder than the current ceasefire, said Rachel Ziemba, senior adviser with Horizon Engage.

The near-term deal will likely have sanctions waivers to allow the sale of some volumes of Iranian supplies, Ziemba said. But these temporary measures will limit who will be willing to buy, and persistent sanctions and export controls may limit Iran's ability to spend its earnings, she said.

Longer-term sanctions relief would be linked to a broader deal and might still leave some sanctions in place, Ziemba said.

"This is an environment where it will still be difficult to trade with Iran and where sanctions-averse players and those worried about illicit finance may be less able/willing to participate," she said.

Financial relief

The immediate release of frozen funds would be a significant economic win for Iran, providing both liquidity and the ability to legally sell oil, Cahill said. While Iran has gained newfound strategic leverage over shipping and global commodity flows, the conflict has also been financially destructive—conditions that could make the deal more durable.

"The Iranian economy is in absolutely terrible shape," Cahill said. "People are portraying this as a win for Iran, and it is at some level, but there's also a tremendous amount of economic pressure and rebuilding they have to do."

The return of frozen funds and ability to generate more oil revenue would be "a huge win," he said. While larger negotiations over further sanctions and the status of Iran's nuclear program could linger, both sides have an incentive to restore shipping traffic to prewar levels.

"I'm pretty confident we're going to get there" on the resumption of traffic, Cahill said.