Iran likely to delay nuclear talks, retain leverage over Hormuz even with deal: experts

The benefits of the recent deal between the US and Iran could prove elusive because Iran will retain the option of disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and is likely to draw out talks on its nuclear program, experts with the Center for Strategic and International Studies said June 15.

"The Iranians are very good at making negotiations on their nuclear file take as long as they want it to take," Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said during a webinar hosted by CSIS.

Details of a preliminary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran will be released 'sometime after' a June 19 signing ceremony in Geneva, US President Donald Trump said June 15, as shippers await clarification before resuming transits across the Strait of Hormuz.

It took two and a half years for the Obama administration to negotiate the prior nuclear deal with Iran, and it took nearly as long for the Biden administration to engage with Iran and decide there wasn't a deal to be had and walk away, said Ratney, a senior adviser at CSIS.

"This is not something that's going to be resolved in 60 days or 120 days," Ratney said. "I think ultimately, it's just going to be a gigantic dirty diaper in the lap of the next administration."

The degree to which the Iranians engage on the nuclear issue will depend to some degree on how much sanctions relief they've already gotten and how much more sanctions relief they stand to get, Ratney said.

Paul Salem, a senior associate at CSIS, says the deal does very little. The strait was open before the war, and now the deal says Iran will open the strait again and promise to talk about the nuclear issue, he said.

"I am skeptical that much progress will be made on the nuclear issue now that the US has removed the main leverage that it has, which was the siege," Salem said. "So in a way, this deal is a bit of a nothing burger."

The US focus on the nuclear issue also distracts from the capacity Iran has used effectively to push back on the US: its missile program, its drone program and the closure of the strait, Salem said.

Saying that the deal reopens the strait doesn't capture the complexity of the situation, said Mona Yacoubian, the director of the Middle East program at CSIS. "The real question is who has control, more so than whether it's open or closed. Does Iran retain the ability to disrupt at will?"

Iranian leaders were willing to use timing to their advantage, and they knew they could hold out until the war began to affect the US midterm elections, said Susan Ziadeh, a former US ambassador to Qatar and a senior adviser at CSIS. "They had more flexibility on the timing than we did, and they knew that."

Iran will use the time heading into the US midterm elections to recoup and regroup, and not commit to anything in any kind of agreement, Ziadeh said. "I think it will drag out."