Spotlight: January weather colder than normal: US warmer, Europe and Japan colder

January weather was 1% colder than the 10-year normal for the combined three major OECD markets.

In terms of demand impact, January's heating oil fuels' demand was 1.25 million b/d stronger than last year and 58,000 b/d below the 10-year normal.

Japan's weather was the largest on year change, increasing 17% compared to 2020.

W. Europe's weather showed the largest difference to the 10-year normal, higher by 7%.

January was 1% colder than the 10-year normal for the three major OECD markets with a loss of 58,000 b/d of oil-heat demand versus normal.

US weather in January turned out 6% warmer than normal and its impact on oil-heat demand was 240,000 b/d lower than normal. The demand loss is broken out as 135,000 b/d of gasoil and 101,000 b/d of LPG lost. Western Europe came in 7% colder than normal, gaining 171,000 b/d of oil-heat demand relative to normal. Most of the gain is in gasoil (138,000 b/d). LPG and kero gained 21,000 b/d and 12,000 b/d, respectively.

Japan's temperatures were slightly colder normal for an 11,000 b/d gain for the month (3,000 b/d of gasoil, 3,000 b/d of kero, and 5,000 b/d of LPG).

This January was colder than a year ago by 13%; the US was stronger by 330,000 b/d, Europe was above by 395,000 b/d and Japan gained by 525,000 b/d.

Note: Normal HDDs are based on average daily HDDs of the most recent 10 years.