Brazil beef exporters pivot to new markets as China quota nears exhaustion

As China's beef import quota nears exhaustion, Brazil's beef traders are increasing sales to other markets to compensate for any shortfall in shipments, according to local traders and exporters.

China is the largest beef importer globally, while Brazil is the largest exporter, according to US Department of Agriculture.

"The quota is likely to be over in the next few weeks, and the tariffs will kick in. Brazilian exporters are now looking to expand their presence in new markets," a beef trader based in Mato Grasso said.

China imposed an annual quota on beef imports from different countries, including Brazil and announced an additional tariff of 55% on beef imports exceeding the quota from 2026 through 2028, the country's commerce ministry said Dec. 31, 2025.

For 2026, China set the quota for Brazil at 1.1 million metric tons, it said. For Brazil, China set the quota at 1.13 million mt in 2027 and at 1.15 million mt in 2028, it added.

During marketing year 2026 (January-December), Brazilian exporters increased the pace of exports to offload inventory in China, their biggest buyer, local traders said.

From January through June, Brazil exported 744,155 mt of beef, 17.8% higher year over year, according to data from Brazil's Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), released July 5. In 2025, Brazil sold 1.64 million mt of beef to China, according to the data.

According to China's General Administration of Customs, Brazil had utilized 78.9% of its safeguard quotas as of June 30.

"Most transactions eligible under the China export quota have already been completed, reducing liquidity and slowing the pace of new deals," analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA said.

Exporters seek new markets

Brazilian beef exporters are now looking at ways to increase shipments to the US, Chile, Russia and some Southeast Asian nations.

"Exports have been rising to the US, Chile and Russia to compensate for the likely fall in China's imports," a trader based in São Paulo said.

During January to June, Brazil exported 1.49 million mt of beef, up 17.2% from the same period a year ago, according to Secex data.

During this period, Brazil's beef exports to the US rose 17.3% year over year to 183,598 mt, while shipments to Chile increased 20.6% year over year to 69,784 mt, the Secex data showed.

Brazil also sold 51,011 mt of beef to Russia during January-June, up 40.7% year over year, the data showed.

"The exports to other countries have increased as Brazilian traders look to compensate any shortfall in shipments to China," an exporter based in Goias said.

On the other hand, exporters have been slowing the pace of exports to China since late June over tariff concerns.

"By late June, however, China-oriented packers began slowing production due to the risk of tariffs," CERA said.

Brazil's supply seen tightening

In MY 2026, Brazil's beef production is seen declining slightly due to a slower pace of cattle slaughter during January-March, Brazilian beef traders said.

During January-March 2026, 10.29 million heads of cattle were slaughtered, a 6.9% decline compared to the previous quarter, according to data released by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) on June 16. However, cattle slaughter was up 3.3% year over year, IBGE said in its survey.

"Although volumes remained above Q1 2025 levels, the contraction in male slaughter and higher female participation point to a more adjusted cattle supply outlook for 2026," CERA said.

CERA has estimated Brazil to produce 12.2 million mt of beef in MY 2026, down 3.3% year over year. In MY 2027, CERA forecast Brazil's beef output is seen declining 3.6% year over year to 11.8 million mt.

Brazil's overall beef exports are also likely to decline in MY 2026 and MY 2027 on the back of anticipated lower output, CERA analysts estimated.

"Lower export will follow from the lower levels of exportable surplus," CERA said.

In MY 2026, Brazil's total beef exports are seen at 3.9 million mt, down 10.2% on year, and Brazil's overall beef shipments are likely to decline 5.9% year over year to 3.7 million mt in MY 2027, CERA data show.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Brazil beef marker at $5,270/mt on July 20, down 8.7% year over year.