Black Sea wheat prices hit multiweek highs amid shipping disruptions

Black Sea wheat prices have risen sharply over the past week amid escalated Russia-Ukraine attacks since July 10, which included strikes on vessels loading at ports and export infrastructure, according to multiple market participants.

The Platts wheat benchmark, the Milling Wheat Marker, climbed nearly 3% for the week, reaching a three-week high.

Prices in Romania and Bulgaria rose further, by 10.59%, to their highest levels since June 2024 amid added premiums for wheat shipped via these safer routes, widening the price spread between the Constanta-Varna-Burgas market and Russian and Ukrainian wheat to about $25/mt. Limited offers of 12.5% wheat from Romania amid quality concerns of the new crop also contributed to the price surge.

Within the CVB market, the spread between 11.5% and 12.5% wheat was at $7-$8/mt, and $10/mt for the feed wheat market. Russian 12.5% and Ukrainian 11.5% wheat prices rose to three- or four-week highs, up 3.72% and 2.24%, respectively.

There were market talks in Ukraine that military forces were planning to set up a special convoy to escort ships in and out of the country, a local Ukraine-based seller said.

Meanwhile, the coasters market from the Azov Sea saw sellers refrain from offering cargoes, while buyers remained cautious and reluctant to book vessels amid ongoing uncertainty. "I see no offers or bids for coasters," said one buyer.

Russia's Ministry of Agriculture said on Telegram on July 14 that the situation in the Sea of Azov would not affect food exports, and supply logistics would be reoriented if needed.

Demand remains weak

Buyers remained cautious, holding back bids as they awaited greater market clarity.

"It is difficult to find demand," said a seller based in Romania.

Some short-covering activity was observed, with a trade for Saudi Arabia's 12.5% specification concluded at $267/mt, as traders aimed to fulfill August shipment tenders. Russian wheat FOB buyers were seen bidding at $235/mt, but overall, firm FOB bids were scarce.

"There are no buyers on FOB," said a Ukraine-based seller.

In Egypt, one of the largest importers of Black Sea wheat, buyers also paused, waiting for further direction before entering the market. CIF offers for 12.5% wheat were quoted at $254/mt for August-September shipment.

Platts assessed the CIF East Mediterranean 12.5% price at $253/mt on July 16, up nearly 3% from July 10. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.

These price movements follow strong Black Sea wheat supply and the marketing of the new crop, even as Ukraine faces ongoing infrastructure and labor shortages and Russia contends with a fuel crisis.