Brazilian soybean export prices hit over 2.5-year high on CBOT gains, firm demand

Brazilian soybean export prices hit an over two-and-a-half-year high July 15, supported by gains in Chicago Board of Trade futures and firm overseas demand, which has kept port differentials firm despite a record domestic crop.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed SOYBEX FOB Santos for August loading at $483.66/metric ton on July 15, the highest level for a spot shipment since Dec. 29, 2023. The Brazilian soybean assessment has risen nearly 20% so far in 2026.

The gains have been partly driven by stronger CBOT soybean futures amid renewed optimism over Chinese purchases of US soybeans. The latest reported deal came July 10, when the US Department of Agriculture announced private sales of 136,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China in the marketing year 2026-27 (September-October).

US farmers are preparing to harvest the upcoming crop in the coming months, while adverse weather in early July -- including hot and dry conditions across parts of the US Midwest -- also supported Chicago benchmarks.

Against this backdrop, the front-month CBOT soybean futures contract settled at $12.0225/bushel on July 15, up 17% since the start of 2026.

Firm basis

Alongside the gains in CBOT futures, Brazilian soybean FOB outright prices have also been supported by relatively firm port differentials, underpinned by steady export demand.

The SOYBEX FOB Santos basis was assessed at a premium of 114 cents/bu to Chicago futures on July 15, after reaching a 116 cents/bu premium on July 14, the highest level for a spot loading since mid-December 2025.

A year earlier, the basis stood at a 147 cents/bu premium, reflecting escalating trade tensions between the US and China, which further boosted demand for Brazilian soybeans.

Brazilian soybean export premiums have remained resilient even after the country harvested a record 182 million mt of soybeans in the 2025-26 season, up more than 10 million mt from the previous cycle, according to S&P Global Energy CERA estimates.

Overseas demand for Brazilian soybeans remains strong, particularly from China, supporting premiums in the world's largest producer and exporter of the oilseed.

Brazil exported 14.50 million mt of soybeans in June, a record for the month, with China taking 71% of the total, according to Brazil's Foreign Trade Secretariat, or Secex.

Brazil's cumulative soybean exports in the 2025-26 season, which runs from January to December, reached 70 million mt, up 5 million mt from the same period a year earlier, with China accounting for 48.60 million mt of the total, the Secex data showed.

For July, Brazil is expected to export 13.76 million mt of soybeans, also a record for the month, according to estimates released on July 14 by the Brazilian Grain Exporters Association, or Anec.

The projected July volume would be up 15.2% year over year but largely unchanged month over month. Anec's estimate is based on the current vessel lineup at Brazilian ports.