French wheat prices hit record high amid Sea of Azov disruptions, EU heat wave

French wheat prices hit a record high on July 14, as renewed geopolitical tensions around the Black Sea and the Middle East combined with worsening weather risks across the EU.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed wheat at Eur219.25/metric ton ($250.40/mt) FOB and Eur217/mt CPT Rouen on July 14, the highest since July 2025 when Platts began assessing the FOB market.

Last week, there were reports of disruption to Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov, a critical route for Russian wheat exports. Local media reported that Ukrainian strikes on Russian tankers prompted Russia to temporarily halt shipping from the Don River into the Sea of Azov -- a route that handles about 25% of Russian wheat exports.

Additionally, the heatwave sweeping through the EU is expected to further strain crops, with late-season winter wheat and all spring crops seen as particularly exposed, market sources said.

Some winter crops already harvested have partial protection, but the market is "once again drawing support from weather concerns," recouping part of losses from the sharp correction at the end of May, a French wheat broker said.

"The geopolitical risk premium has overshadowed the ongoing harvest pressure and the market is starting to price in the risk of prolonged export disruptions," the broker said.

In France, the soft wheat harvest is progressing with 59% complete, according to FranceAgriMer, compared with a five-year average of 16% at this time of year. The agency said crop condition ratings slipped by 3% to good/excellent, though it added that the measure is becoming less indicative as harvesting progresses.

A trader attributed the unusually rapid pace to an early, sustained heat spell that accelerated crop development. The trader noted that while winter grain harvest has started and provides some buffer for wheat and barley, spring barley and corn remain vulnerable.

The European Association of Cereals and Oilseed Traders' July crop forecast put expected wheat production (excluding durum) at 140.8 million mt, down from the previous estimate of 143.7 million mt and compared with 149.8 million mt in 2025, due to severe heat and dryness in France and Eastern Europe.

On the destination side, Morocco's domestic wheat harvest remains active, according to a Morocco-based trader, with total collected volume estimated at around 500,000 mt, roughly 15% of the total wheat crop.

Daily arrivals are running at about 15,000 mt nationwide. Earlier market estimates placed collected volume closer to 350,000 mt, with daily arrivals between 15,000 mt and 20,000 mt, the trader said. Available wheat stocks were estimated at around 2 million mt, equivalent to roughly five months of milling demand.