Marmara wheat prices rebound from 19-month lows amid Black Sea shipping disruptions

Platts-assessed CIF Marmara wheat prices rebounded from a 19-month low, early in the week to July 14, following reports of vessel movement disruptions along the Kerch Strait and strikes in the Azov Sea, according to multiple market participants. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.

On July 14, Russia's Ministry of Agriculture said on Telegram that the situation in the Sea of Azov "will not affect the supply of food to the domestic market or the export capabilities of our country."

"Given the significant capacities for transshipment of agricultural goods in different regions of Russia, supply logistics will be reoriented if necessary. Currently, alternative routes for cargo flows are being worked out together with the relevant departments and businesses," the statement on Telegram said.

For two consecutive days, July 13-14, sellers refrained from offering cargoes in the market, while buyers remained cautious, reluctant to book vessels amid uncertainty. "I see no offers for coasters," a buyer said.

"No one would bid for an unknown shipment window," a second buyer said.

CIF Marmara 12.5% price assessment rose $3/metric ton week over week to $224/mt on July 14, rebounding from near 19-month lows hit in the week prior. Prices were at $220/mt on July 8, the lowest level since Dec. 19, 2024. The low prices were driven by an expected bumper new crop in Turkey.

Turkey is harvesting a record wheat crop, with projections of close to 23 million mt, which is expected to cap any significant price rises, keeping prices lower. "We have a huge crop; demand from Turkey will be limited," a third buyer said.

Buyers are also awaiting potential announcements regarding import bans after the harvest concludes in September.

The new Russian wheat harvest is also underway, albeit initially delayed by rainy weather. The strikes and disruptions followed Russia's fuel crisis, which has further pushed up wheat prices. CPT prices have climbed to Rb17,000/mt ($219.13/mt) on July 14, up Rb2,000/mt from July 10.