Heat, dryness drive corn market concerns across US and Western Europe

Rising temperatures and persistent heatwaves across major corn-producing regions are driving corn prices higher as the 2026/2027 harvest approaches. Traders are increasingly concerned that extreme weather could significantly reduce production volumes and crop yields and eventually drive prices.

US corn values rise as pollination risk rises

As weather risks across the US Corn Belt have intensified during the pollination window, domestic corn basis levels at CIF New Orleans have strengthened, supported by growing concerns over hot and dry conditions in parts of the Western belt.

Platts data showed CIF NOLA corn basis values for July shipments widened from 88 cents/bu bid and 90 cents/bu offered on July 1 to 100 cents/bu bid and 111 cents/bu offered on July 13. For August shipments, basis values also strengthened over the same period, moving from 96 cents/bu bid and 99 cents/bu offered to 103 cents/bu bid and 112 cents/bu offered.

The "Western belt [is] likely to have some concerns with hot and dry weather over the next seven days during pollination," an Illinois-based trader said.

USDA released its Crop Progress report on July 13, showing 34% of the corn crop in the silking stage, above the 30% five-year average. The report also showed that 53% of corn was rated in good condition—unchanged from last week, but weaker than the 57% recorded in the prior year. While 15% was rated excellent, up by one percentage point from the previous week, it was still slightly below 17% from the prior year.

"If the forecast holds dry and warm, it could really start declining the condition of the crops the following week," said Mindy Scruggs, area & production corn analyst at CERA.

Kyle Hedrick, who leads risk management and trading strategies at Cargill, said on the July 8 Cargill Elevate podcast that weather had been driving the corn outlook in recent days, as warmer temperatures and dryness moved into focus.

"Corn looks OK, but we're getting into pollination weather, so the next few weeks will be very important," an Iowa-based trader said.

National Weather Service expects most Corn Belt areas to run near to above normal, with daytime highs commonly in the upper 80s to mid-90s °F, specifically Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska, Minnesota and South Dakota. While Indiana, Ohio and Michigan expect to prevail in warm and humid conditions.

Additional support came from the USDA's July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released July 10, which projected US corn ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year at 2.02 billion bushels, down from the previous estimate of 2.145 billion bushels and below the 2.049 billion bushels projected by S&P Global Energy CERA.

Platts assessed on July 13 the outright price for July shipments to New Orleans in the incoterm CIF at $213/mt and for August shipments at $214.55/mt. September shipment under the FOB Gulf incoterm was assessed at $218.90/mt.

Western Europe corn crop hit by extreme heat

Hot weather and heatwaves across Europe have affected corn production, particularly in Western Europe. France has experienced some of the most severe impacts, according to market participants.

A trader from France said, "For France's 2026 crop, we expect corn production to be below 9 million metric tons because we have already lost 20% of our planted area." And added, "The corn is currently flowering, so with temperatures above 40°C, it could be worse than we thought."

Traders are also anticipating a sharp rise in French corn prices amid low production. The most critically affected regions may have to import corn this season, market participants said.

A Dutch broker said, "French corn prices have increased, but Dutch buyers are not rushing to purchase; they are currently waiting and monitoring the situation."

According to S&P Global Energy CERA, French corn condition ratings fell sharply in June, with 58% of the crop rated in good to excellent condition as of June 29 — far below the lowest level in the past 10 years. A record-breaking heatwave, coupled with already-low soil moisture levels, intensified crop stress.

Corn production in Spain, Germany, Hungary, and Poland is also expected to be affected by the heatwaves, potentially leading to higher corn imports for Hungary, according to market participants.

However, a Spanish broker said the country's corn production has not been significantly affected by the heatwave. He explained that Spain is more accustomed to heatwaves and mainly relies on irrigated crops, with sufficient water resources currently available, so production remains unaffected.

It is too late for the heatwave to significantly affect Spain's wheat crop, and so far, no significant impact has been observed in any of the country's crops, a trader noted.

S&P Global Energy CERA forecasts EU corn production for 2026/2027 at 54.75 million metric tons, down from 60.1 million metric tons in 2025/2026. Meanwhile, crop conditions in Eastern Europe have been less affected by the heatwaves. The most critical period for corn in the region occurs in mid- to late July, and the area has also received precipitation in recent weeks.

A seller from Serbia said, "Corn in Serbia is better than in previous years. We have had some rain in the past weeks." The trader added that "temperatures are around 30°C, which is fine compared with what we have experienced in recent years. So far, everything looks decent."

A trader from Romania said, "For now, the corn is okay. We have had some rain. We need to see what happens over the next two to three weeks."

Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.