US DDGS prices defy seasonal trend after Independence Day, supported by grain rally

US dried distillers grains with solubles prices strengthened sharply following the US Independence Day holiday, defying the seasonal pattern seen in 2025, when values continued to weaken throughout the summer.

Historically, Platts assessments have shown that DDGS prices tend to soften after the July Fourth holiday as seasonal feed demand declines.

In 2025, Chicago truck DDGS price was assessed at $169/short ton on July 2, before falling to $167/st on July 8, $164/st on July 9, $163/st on July 10, and $159/st by July 24, according to Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, data. The market continued trending lower into the autumn, with prices declining until Nov. 11, reflecting persistent summer demand weakness.

The export market followed a similar pattern in 2025. CIF New Orleans was assessed at $194/st on July 3, before falling to $190/st on July 8, $182/st on July 9, $181/st on July 11, $179/st on July 12, holding at $178/st through July 16, and slipping to $177/st on July 19. CIF values remained at relatively subdued levels through the end of September as export demand softened, Platts data showed.

"Looking back, there does seem to be a pre-holiday firmness followed by a bit of seasonal weakness afterward," a broker said.

However, this year, the market has moved in the opposite direction.

Platts assessed Chicago truck DDGS price at $166/st on July 2, with prices climbing to $171/st on July 6 and $173/st from July 7-9. Compared with the same period last year, Chicago truck values were 3.6% higher on July 8 and 5.5% higher on July 9.

CIF New Orleans followed a similar trajectory. Platts assessed CIF DDGS price at $182/st on July 2, rising to $191/st on July 7 and $199/st on July 8-9. Those values were 4.7% higher than on July 8, 2025, and 9.3% above July 9, 2025.

Market participants largely attributed the rally to strength in broader agricultural markets rather than DDGS-specific fundamentals.

"It hasn't been the trend. I don't think I'll last," a second broker said.

"Things do feel firmer," one trader said July 7. "The board run-up and barge freight should elevate CIF a bit."

Another trader agreed that higher corn and soybean meal prices were driving DDGS. "Corn and soybean meal prices increased significantly, so DDGS prices in CIF and Chann moved higher too," the source said, pointing to weather concerns in the US Corn Belt as the catalyst.

A Colombia-based broker echoed the sentiment, saying, "The market is stronger because of corn and soybean meal."

Despite stronger prices, participants questioned whether DDGS itself has the underlying demand to justify the rally.

"I wouldn't say there is a compelling case for DDG alone," a fourth trader said. "Agricultural markets and barge freight are currently supported as a whole."

A fifth trader described rail markets as "pretty wide and quiet." Meanwhile, another sales manager said, "I think the rally is short-lived, but it's helping to support prices at the moment."

Demand also remains a concern. A third broker said domestic buyers are still hesitant to step into the market. "Domestic is not very interested in DDGS right now. They all want to see how things unfold," the third broker said.

The broker added that stronger Chinese buying of soybeans -- and potentially corn -- could further limit DDGS export opportunities. "DDGS will go mostly in containers," the broker said, suggesting bulk export capacity could increasingly be devoted to soybeans.

The broker said market participants generally expect the next 30-45 days to be critical as livestock producers begin making feed purchasing decisions. While some believe the recent rally may have marked a market bottom after June's sharp decline, others cautioned that prices have risen too quickly relative to competing feed ingredients.

"The curve went up too fast versus meal," the second broker said July 8. The third broker added that the market "whip-sawed back up so fast it's hard to tell."

For now, sources agreed that corn and soybean meal markets, not DDGS fundamentals, have been setting the direction, and that sustained price gains would likely require stronger export demand and renewed domestic buying once summer feed demand begins to recover.

Platts assessed CIF New Orleans DDGS barges for the July shipment period at $197/st on July 10, the Chicago DDGS truck market for the July delivery period was assessed at $173/st, and the South California rail market for the July delivery period was assessed at $227/st.