US pork exports likely to keep rising on strong global demand, CERA analyst says

After reaching record levels in recent months, pork exports from the US are expected to continue strengthening through the remainder of the year, S&P Global Energy CERA analyst Lacey Williams said.

Williams said strong export demand has supported the pork complex, while domestic demand in the US remains shaped by consumer spending patterns. Inflation and elevated gasoline prices have strained household budgets, leading consumers to spend less on food and discretionary purchases.

While pork has remained a preferred alternative to higher-priced beef, Williams said, the shift toward lower-cost proteins has been less pronounced than many market participants expected earlier in the year. She added that lower energy costs could provide some relief to consumers later in the third quarter, though she does not expect an immediate impact on demand.

That strong export demand was reflected in April trade data released by the US Meat Export Federation, which showed growth across key export markets.

USMEF CEO Dan Halstrom said Mexico and other key Latin American markets continued to perform well for US pork, supported by new product development and consumer education efforts. He also pointed to a rebound in Japan and Taiwan, growth in the Philippines, and steady demand in South Korea, saying 2026 was shaping up to be a strong year for US pork exports.

April pork exports totaled 257,212 mt, up 8% from a year earlier, while export value increased 6% to $718.1 million, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Export value per head slaughtered reached $66.83, up 7% year over year.

Several key destinations, such as Mexico, Japan, the Dominican Republic, Central America and the Philippines, saw growth, according to the USDA. Exports to China and Canada were also slightly higher.

Despite the strong April performance, pseudorabies virus-related restrictions remained a concern for pork variety meat exports. Mexico and Colombia imposed restrictions on some pork product varieties in early May following the detection of pseudorabies virus in Iowa and Texas. Effective June 8, Mexico narrowed those restrictions to products sourced from hogs raised on farms in Iowa or Texas.

Pork muscle cut exports have not been impacted by the PRV findings, according to the USMEF. Halstrom said the restrictions had a significant negative impact on May exports and continued into June, but he expressed hope that the disruption would be temporary as the USDA works with trading partners to resolve the issue.

Platts assessed frozen pork loin EXW-US Midwest for shipment 15-30 days forward on June 16 at $1.34/lb, unchanged from June 15.