Record soybean output lifts Brazil’s 2024-25 grain outlook to new high: Conab

Brazil's food supply and statistics agency Conab on June 12 raised the country's soybean production outlook for marketing year 2024-25 (January-December) to a record high of 169.6 million mt, up 14.8% year over year.

Fueled by the bumper outlook, the country's total grain production in MY 2024-25 now points to a record 336.1 million mt, an increase of 13% compared to the previous cycle, Conab said in its latest harvest survey report.

Conab's revised outlook for Brazilian soybeans is up 1.27 million mt from its estimates, the report said, noting that "productivity in this harvest exceeded initial estimates in almost all producing states, favored by the good weather conditions that occurred during the cycle."

"The exceptions were Mato Grosso do Sul, which was affected by irregular rainfall, and Rio Grande do Sul, which, as in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 harvests, was again influenced by dry spells during the crop cycle," Conab said.

Brazil's soybean outlook:

Source: Conab

Similarly, with the increase in production, Conab adjusted Brazil's MY 2024-25 exports to 106.24 million mt, up 7.5% year over year and 280,000 mt higher than the May estimates.

"As there is no expectation of an increase in the percentage of biodiesel mixed with diesel, from 14% to 15%, the volumes destined for crushing were reduced by 903,000 mt, going from 57.03 million mt to 56.15 million mt," Conab said.

Conab projects Brazil's MY 2024-25 ending stocks at 4.83 million mt, significantly higher compared to 758,400 mt in the previous cycle.

Platts assessed the SOYBEX FOB Santos soybean price for July loading at $423.12/mt on June 11, 83 cents/mt lower from the previous assessment. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.