USDA maintains 2027 US beef imports forecast unchanged at 6 billion lb

The US Department of Agriculture kept its outlook for US beef imports unchanged for marketing year 2027 (January-December) at 6 billion pounds, according to its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released June 11.

US beef imports are expected to be 1.8% lower year over year, although 9.7% higher from 2025, according to the report.

The USDA maintained its US beef import estimates for MY 2026 at 6.109 billion lb, which is still 11.7% higher than MY 2025.

The USDA pegged US beef output for MY 2027 at 25.435 billion lb, compared against 25.378 billion lb seen a month ago.

For 2026, US beef output is seen at 25.506 billion lb, compared with 25.616 billion lb seen a month earlier, the report said.

"Beef production is lowered, as the slow rate of steer and heifer slaughter is expected to continue through the second quarter and into the third quarter," the report said. "Cow slaughter is also reduced for the remainder of the year. Heavier dressed weights partially offset the reductions in slaughter."

The USDA pegged US beef exports in MY 2027 at 2.325 billion lb, slightly down from 2.335 billion lb seen in May. According to the report, the USDA estimated US beef exports for MY 2026 at 2.341 billion lb, compared against 2.361 billion lb seen in May.

"Beef exports are lowered in the second quarter of 2026 based on recent trade data but are unchanged for the remainder of the year. Reduced beef exports are carried into 2027. Beef imports are unchanged for 2026 and 2027," the report said.

Prices

Despite the lower domestic production, lean beef trimmings prices for imports have been pressured by high import volumes and expectations that more imports are on their way to the US as Brazil and Australia will fill the quotas established by China, according to beef traders.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the 90CL beef CIF East Coast for a 30- to 60-day shipment period at $3.65/lb on June 10, down 2 cents day over day, week over week, and month over month, amid a volatile and thin market. This was for Australia or New Zealand origin, which was the most reflective day over day.

Despite lower values for 90CL beef CIF East Coast, 95CL values remained steady at $3.87/lb for cow beef from New Zealand origin.

On the port-of-entry market, the 90CL beef FCA East Coast for a 16- to 60-day delivery period was assessed at $3.33/lb on June 10, unchanged day over day and week over week, but down 19 cents month over month, amid pressure from Brazilian and Paraguay imports. This was for South American origin, which was the most reflective day over day.