India’s rice output to remain stable in MY 2026-27 despite El Nino, fertilizer risk: IREF VP

India's rice production is expected to remain stable in marketing year 2026-27 despite the India Meteorological Department's warning of below-normal monsoon rainfall and rising global fertilizer prices, Dev Garg, vice president of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation, told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, in an interview.

This follows India's near-record 151 million metric tons output the prior year and surplus stocks of about 28 million mt, he said.

The IMD has forecast that the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall will be "below normal" at 90% of the Long Period Average.

"India's rice production is evenly spread across the country. In the past, we have seen such predictions happen with surplus or deficit rain, but they have had minimal impact on overall paddy production," Garg said. "There was El Nino a few years ago, which did not ultimately have any impact on rice cultivation and production has grown year over year."

"Agri infrastructure in India is well developed; short deficit rain doesn't have a detrimental impact on cultivation," Garg added.

"Telangana is a very water-abundant state and is the fastest-growing state in rice cultivation. Last year, Telangana's production grew at 22%, and today it is the largest rice-producing state," he said.

On rising fertilizer risk, Garg said, "Entire rice cultivation in a large way is highly subsidized by the government of India."

"Fertilizer issue is a fiscal issue for the government, which will not have a bearing on farmer output, as farmers will get fertilizers at a subsidized rate. The government might incur a few more additional costs for subsidies, Garg said.

Demand expected anid competitive prices

"El Nino and rising fuel and fertilizer costs will have a direct impact on our major competition, Pakistan," Garg said. "So, if you look at prices internationally, Thailand is the most expensive and India is in the most competitive position currently."

In the coming months, Indian rice will be the most competitive, he added.

"The competitiveness of our exports, along with ongoing initiatives such as organizing BIRC 2026, is supporting the sector's outlook, Garg said.

According to a post-conference impact assessment by EY, BIRC 2025 was identified as one of the world's largest rice conferences in terms of participation and scale, and events like this play an important role in promoting India's rice exports, particularly as many competitors do not host comparable forums, he said, adding, that building on BIRC 2025 and the upcoming BIRC 2026 in late October, we expect India's rice exports to strengthen in the second half of 2026."

Garg also anticipates that alternative markets, such as Malaysia, will buy from India.

"Africa is already flooded with lot of stocks, each country has sufficient stock, past two years Africa has seen key focus area as our alternative markets like Malaysia, Indonesia have not been buying from India in such huge quantities as they used to do earlier," Garg said, "In Africa, India rice sells at a premium despite thai rice on paper having a better specification, but post cooking of Indian rice is preferred by Africa."

"This year, since international prices of other countries are much more than India, we see these markets coming back," he added. "We are expecting them to buy because they would want to buy cheap rice, if the spread between India and Thailand is more than $50-$60/mt."

Platts assessed India rice 5% WR at $341/mt FOB June 5, $5/mt up month over month, and at $119/mt discount to Thailand 5% WR.

India's position in global rice market

Garg said the government's efforts to market India's premium varieties could help the country gain market share from other origins.

"Going forward, APEDA has been engaging with all industry stakeholders, making export procedures simpler and investing in trade promotional activities, such as events like BIRC 2026, which will go a long way in strengthening India's position in the global rice market," he said.

"Additionally, we made efforts last year by identifying certain varieties of rice that are a replacement in foreign cuisines. India has identified 26 markets where they are buying rice worth Rupees 1.6 lakh crore of rice from India's competitors."

"We are making efforts for those export markets, which are not dominated by us, to come home," Garg said.

Risk for Indian rice exports

Garg foresees less interference from the Indian government, as India has ample inventory.

"Given the fact that today we have a huge surplus of 27 million-28 million mt, it is unlikely the government will interfere now," he said.

"The government's initial estimate for rice/paddy production at the beginning of the year was 156 million mt, which has since been revised downward to 153 million mt. However, the revised estimate still remains above the current production level of approximately 151 million mt," Garg said.

"Given that the country is already holding substantial surplus stocks, even a modest increase in production would further add to the challenge of managing and disposing of these excess inventories."

"As a result, any incremental growth in output is likely to intensify the efforts required to effectively liquidate the existing stockpile," he added.

The biggest risk right now is the volatility in international freight rates, insurance premiums and the food safety regulations of importing countries, Garg said, highlighting the past cases where countries such as Algeria abruptly changed their food security rules, leaving a large volume of exports stranded.

"The food sector is extremely sensitive, so multiple stakeholders and interest groups tend to influence these decisions," Garg said.