Brazilian CBIO prices hit lowest level in Platts series

Platts assessed the Brazilian Decarbonization Credit, or CBIO, at the lowest level in its historical series June 2, at Real 24/metric ton of CO2 equivalent.

The series dates back to June 3, 2024, with the previous low on Dec. 16, 2025, at Real 24.5/mt. The move followed a preliminary injunction issued May 27 by Brazil's federal audit court, the TCU, suspending the effects of administrative sanctions against fuel distributors that failed to meet RenovaBio compliance obligations for cycles closed through Dec. 31, 2024.

The decision did not suspend current or future compliance obligations. It ordered the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, or ANP, to design a regularization program for distributors with past shortfalls, while temporarily suspending penalties, such as fines and restrictions on fuel commercialization, tied to those earlier cycles.

That means that distributors previously exposed to penalties for past non-compliance may now have less incentive to buy and retire CBIOs in the prompt market while they wait for ANP's regularization framework.

As a result, the decision is likely to weigh on near-term CBIO demand, even though the underlying obligation has not been canceled.

Higher 2026 mandate fails to tighten prompt market

The 2026 national CBIO target is higher than in 2025, at 48.09 million CBIOs, compared with 40.39 million CBIOs in 2025, an increase of 19.1%. Despite the higher annual target, the market does not appear as tight as the headline obligation would suggest, with CBIOs prices at a record low.

Retirements reached 8.73 million CBIOs from Jan. 2 to June 2, 2026, compared with 6.17 million CBIOs in the same period of 2025. As a share of the annual target, retirements stood at 18.1% in 2026, up from 15.3% in 2025, indicating stronger year-over-year compliance progress.

CBIO stocks, meaning all CBIOs available in the market and not yet retired, also remained broadly stable in absolute terms, while declining relative to the annual target. Total stocks stood at 28.52 million CBIOs on June 2, 2026, compared with 28.27 million CBIOs on the equivalent date in 2025, an increase of only 0.9%.

But because the 2026 target is materially higher, stocks represented a lower share of the annual target -- 59.3% in 2026, compared with 70.0% in 2025.

CBIOs over the long term

When considering potential movements in CBIO prices over the mid- and long-term, several factors should be taken into account. According to Frank Nadimi, consultant at S&P Global Energy Horizons, one important variable is the "compliance rate." This means that the price level of CBIOs will increase when compliance levels compared to the obligations set by the Ministry of Mines and Energies increase.

Another aspect is the biofuels considered under the CBIOs. Brazil's supply/demand for ethanol and biodiesel, which comprise the majority of emitted CBIOs, is well established with a large domestic balance.

"When considering sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel, these biofuels should be evaluated in a more international context, as the SAF and RD markets are in an earlier stage of development and global supply chains are being formed," Nadimi said.

"Hence, SAF- and RD-related CBIO levels will likely show a degree of correlation with international credit levels, whereas the majority of CBIOs will remain ethanol- and biodiesel-related."

S&P Global Energy Horizons has developed a proprietary, long-term CBIO price-forecasting methodology through 2060, with different scenarios impacting CBIO value.