Thai 5% WR rice prices hit 16-month high on tight supplies, El Niño concerns

Thai 5% white rice prices rose to their highest level in over 16 months as millers held back supplies following the harvest and exporters rushed to cover short positions, with mounting concerns over El Niño's potential impact on the next crop adding further upward pressure, several market sources told Platts May 25.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the price of Thai 5% WR rice at $451/metric ton FOB on May 25, 2026, up $2/mt from May 22. The last time the price was higher than this was on Jan. 16, 2025, when it was assessed at $459/mt FOB.

Thai rice prices continued to rise amid tightening supplies following the end of the harvest, and uncertainty surrounding the next crop due to potential El Niño impact, a Bangkok-based rice exporter said. The exporter added that market participants are also closely watching potential demand from Iraq.

As of 11:00 GMT May 25, the Thai baht appreciated 0.64% week over week to 32.47 against the US dollar.

In the domestic market, prices for Thai 5% broken white rice increased by Baht 100 per 100 kg (equivalent to about $30.79/mt) week over week, prices for parboiled 100% STX rose by Baht 120-130 per 100 kg (equivalent to about $36.97-$40.05/mt) week over week, and A1 Super 100% broken white rice increased by Baht 20-30 per 100 kg (equivalent to about $6.16-$9.24/mt) week over week May 25, according to the Thai Rice Millers Association.

Another Bangkok-based exporter said that millers remain reluctant to sell and are releasing only small volumes despite rising prices, while uncertainty surrounding the next crop and the potential impact of El Niño are also supporting bullish sentiment.

Most exporters mirrored the same sentiment.

A third Bangkok-based supplier attributed the rise in Thai rice prices to strong buying activity in the domestic market, as exporters continue to procure significant volumes for shipment in June amid limited selling interest from millers.

Some exporters refrained from making fresh offers due to heightened market volatility and rapidly rising domestic prices.

While market participants expect Thai rice prices to remain firm in the near term, further support could emerge if demand from key destinations increases amid uncertainty about the impact of El Niño.