US farmers eye China's near-term soybean, beef import commitments after Beijing summit

US farmers are anticipating near-term commitments from China to import US agricultural commodities, such as soybeans and beef, following months of slower bilateral trade, according to US-based market participants.

After bilateral talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing over May 14-15, the White House said in a fact sheet May 18 that China is expected to purchase $17 billion in US agricultural products annually through 2028, in addition to its existing commitment to buy 25 million mt of soybeans each year over the same period.

In 2025, China halted soybean purchases from June to October and suspended export licenses for US beef facilities amid trade tensions.

Although China resumed purchases of US-origin soybeans in late October 2025, volumes remain low.

"If Trump succeeds in normalizing commercial buying of US soybeans, it would be strongly bullish for Chicago Board of Trade soybeans. Otherwise, it remains largely a narrative," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.

China bought 3.41 million mt of soybeans from the US over January-March, down 70.5% year over year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. US soybean shipments to China fell 24% year over year to 16.8 million mt in 2025, the data showed.

"We are looking forward to a successful harvest to fulfill China's purchase commitments," Scott Metzger, American Soybean Association president, said May 14.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the SOYBEX CFR China flat price at $499.44/mt on May 20, up 13.1% year over year. Platts assessed SOYBEX FOB New Orleans at $476.47/mt on May 20, up 14.3% year over year.

However, as Beijing continues to prioritize domestic grain self-sufficiency, US corn exports to China may remain limited.

In the first quarter of 2026, China did not import any US corn, according to China's customs data. In 2025, China's imports of US corn fell to 20,065 mt from 2.65 million mt in 2024.

Platts assessed US corn CIF New Orleans at $215.25/mt on May 20, up 3.2% year over year. Platts assessed North Asia corn CFR at $278/mt on May 20, up 15.8% year over year.

Beef, poultry imports in focus

China's renewal of export licenses for more than 400 US beef facilities and the resumption of poultry imports from certain US states determined to be free of highly pathogenic avian influenza could benefit US animal protein exporters.

"China's renewal of US beef establishments is excellent news for the US beef industry and for the customers in China who are anxious to resume purchases," the US Meat Export Federation said on May 15.

In the first quarter of 2026, China imported 495 mt of beef from the US, down 98.3% year over year, according to China's customs data. In 2025, China's imports of US beef fell 59% year over year to 61,378 mt, the data showed.

Jessie Khor, principal protein analyst at S&P Global Energy CERA, said, "Although China has allocated a 164,000 mt safeguard quota to the US for 2026, year-to-date utilization is estimated at only around 1% as of April."

Platts assessed 90 CL beef CIF US at $8,003/mt on May 20, up 22.6% year over year. Platts assessed 95 CL beef CIF US at $8,598/mt on May 20, up 23.4% year over year.

However, pork and poultry exports from the US to China may only see modest increases as China's pork and poultry sectors navigate structural oversupply, driven by industry consolidation and productivity gains, Khor said.

China's pork imports from the US fell 16.9% year over year to 10,080 mt in Q1 2026, according to China's customs data. China's imports of US pork fell 21% year over year to 55,447 mt in 2025, the data showed.

In the first quarter of 2026, China's chicken imports from the US fell 45.3% year over year to 19,281 mt, according to the customs data. In 2025, China's imports of US chicken meat fell 7% year over year to 97,666 mt.

Platts assessed North Asia pork belly CFR at $4,250/mt on May 20, down 25.9% year over year. Platts assessed US pork loin at $3,064.43/mt on May 20, up 1.5% from July 1, 2025.

Platts assessed the US chicken marker at $1,168/mt on May 20, down 1.8% year over year. Platts assessed chicken leg CFR North Asia at $3,140/mt on May 20, up 31.1% year over year.

Tariffs, Brazilian supply

While China and the US discuss ways to reduce tariffs and expand agricultural trade, market participants remain concerned about the higher tariffs on US products.

China imposes an additional 10% duty on US imports, making US-origin products less competitive. China suspended 24% of additional tariffs on US products for one year but retained a 10% reciprocal duty on goods originating in the US, according to a statement from China's Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council on Nov. 5, 2025.

It levies a 13% import duty on US-origin soybeans, compared with a 3% most-favored-nation duty on Brazilian cargoes. For beef, China applies a 22% tariff on US shipments, compared with a 12% duty on Brazilian beef.

"China has agreed to reduce the tariff on US products, but cheaper Brazilian supplies of beef and soybeans are unlikely to benefit US traders a lot," a trader with a Switzerland-based multinational agricultural trading company said.

Brazilian supply could remain significantly cheaper even if China fully removestariffs on US soybeans, CERA analysts said.