Shimp prices pressured by supply growth, tariff uncertainty in March

US shrimp prices moved lower through March, falling from $4.85/pound CIF New York on March 2 to a monthly low of $4.20/lb on March 10-12, before recovering to $4.70/lb by mid-month and then softening again to $4.50/lb by March 24, where the market held through the end of the month.

The early-March decline was driven by lower Indian offers, improving competitiveness from India following tariff adjustments, and cautious buying amid uncertainty around tariff refunds and broader US trade policy. Market participants also pointed to ample inventory and soft sentiment, with buyers hesitant to commit amid the market waiting for a clearer direction.

By mid-March, prices rebounded from the lows as rising freight costs tied to Middle East tensions lifted logistical costs. Market participants at the Seafood Expo North America, held in Boston March 15-17, said the increase was driven more by freight and fuel-related pressure than by any tightening in underlying supply.

The expo also reinforced broader market themes, including tariff uncertainty, shifts in sourcing between Ecuador and India, growing interest in value-added formats, and expectations that higher logistics and insurance costs could continue to influence near-term pricing.

Even with that mid-month recovery, the market remained under pressure from strong supply, particularly from Ecuador. Participants repeatedly cited favorable weather, higher harvest volumes, and oversupply of larger sizes such as 16/20 count shrimp as key factors weighing on prices in the second half of the month. Importers said Ecuadorian production remained heavy, while domestic indications for value-added products weakened, and buying interest stayed limited.

On March 17, the USDA reported that US shrimp imports totaled 67,496 metric tons in January, down 5.5% year over year but up 7.2% month over month. The data pointed to continued inventory adjustment following the elevated 2025 import levels. At the same time, S&P Global Energy CERA analyst Max Bouratoglou noted that Ecuador exported 125,214 mt in January, up 22.6% year over year, underscoring the continued global supply growth that helped keep pressure on the US market.

Tariffs remained a major theme throughout the month. Market participants continued to discuss the Supreme Court's February decision striking down prior tariffs, the Court of International Trade's order on refunds, and the uncertainty around which tariff structure will ultimately remain in place. While refund discussions stayed active, most participants expressed little confidence that reimbursements would meaningfully affect near-term trade flows. Instead, uncertainty continued to weigh on buying behavior and, in some cases, shift contract structures from DDP to FOB to better manage risk.

By month-end, the market quieted again, with Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessing US shrimp at $4.50/lb on March 31. Activity was muted by limited movement from India ahead of the March 31 financial year-end, while the market also started the week slowly ahead of the Easter holiday. With ample supply still available and recent declines failing to spark stronger demand, sentiment remained subdued going into April.