US shrimp prices rise as Middle East tensions lift freight costs

US shrimp prices rose in recent days, with market participants citing rising freight costs tied to the Middle East war as a contributing factor.

Platts assessed peeled and deveined tail-on shrimp, 16/20 count, at $4.70/lb CIF New York, up from $4.20/lb in mid-March, when prices had fallen to their lowest level since August 2025 amid easing tariffs and increased competitiveness from Indian supply.

Market participants at the Seafood Expo North America in Boston said the recent uptick reflects rising logistical costs rather than a structural tightening of supply, with further price direction likely to be influenced by freight costs and geopolitical developments related to tariffs.

Freight costs rise amid geopolitical uncertainty

Participants said the most immediate impact of the Middle East conflict has been on freight and fuel-related costs, rather than on shrimp availability or demand.

One importer said the impact so far has been "more of a short-term cost issue" driven by higher fuel surcharges from carriers, noting that surcharges can increase rapidly following geopolitical events, even before underlying fuel cost changes are fully realized.

The importer added that petroleum-related inflation could extend beyond freight into other parts of the supply chain, including packaging, if elevated oil prices persist.

"Freight and petroleum are the main channels" through which geopolitical tensions are likely to affect shrimp prices over time, the importer said.

Another importer said freight rates could rise further if vessel routing is disrupted, arguing that the primary risk lies in how shipping lines respond to geopolitical events rather than the conflict itself.

Steamship lines may use disruptions as an opportunity to increase rates, similar to behavior seen during COVID-19, when container rates rose from around $4,000 to $22,000, the importer said.

Carriers can adjust routes, add stops and shift cargo flows to preserve margins, which could result in higher freight costs being passed through to buyers.

Longer transit times, higher per-pound freight

A third importer said transit times for shipments from India to the US, typically around 40-50 days, have already begun to extend due to the conflict, with some shipments now expected to take up to two months.

Freight costs have also increased by 5-10 cents/lb, rising from around 13 cents/lb to 18 cents/lb since the escalation, the importer said.

However, the importer noted that current freight levels remain well below pandemic-era highs and could ease if geopolitical conditions stabilize.

Tariffs remain primary market driver

Despite the recent increase in freight costs, some participants said tariffs continue to have a more direct influence on the shrimp market.

A fourth importer said while fuel costs have risen for carriers, their primary focus remains on how tariffs will evolve ahead of the July deadline, when current US measures could be extended or adjusted.

The importer said tariff developments have had a more significant impact on pricing and trade flows than the Middle East conflict itself.

Oil-driven cost pressure to filter through consumers

Geopolitical tensions involving Iran have pushed oil prices higher and introduced additional cost pressure across global supply chains, Nomi Prins, PhD, economist and founder of Prinsights Global, said during the Seafood Expo North America in Boston.

About 20% of global oil flows move through the Strait of Hormuz, making the region a critical chokepoint for energy markets and shipping costs, Prims said.

Higher oil prices are increasing costs across shipping, insurance and last-mile delivery, with part of that burden expected to pass through to consumers, she said.

The consumer will ultimately bear some of the costs that other parts of the seafood supply chain are forced to recover through higher expenses, Prims said.

Despite that pressure, seafood remains relatively well-positioned compared with last year, as consumers have already adapted to elevated prices and continue to prioritize health, protein and convenience.