Lower tariffs, stronger demand lift 2026 global seafood outlook: economist

The global seafood industry entered 2026 in a more stable position than it faced a year earlier, although rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions remain key risks, Nomi Prins, PhD, economist and founder of Prinsights Global, said during the Seafood Expo North America in Boston.

The seafood sector has largely moved beyond the acute tariff uncertainty that defined 2025, with global supply chains adapting and demand trends becoming more favorable, particularly in value-added categories.

"We have this band that's really manageable, that's far less scary than anything we kind of imagined might be happening this time last year," Prins said of the current US tariff structure March 15 during a session at the event.

Tariffs become more manageable

The US tariff environment has become more workable after the US Supreme Court on Feb. 20 struck down President Donald Trump's country-specific tariffs set under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, according to Prins.

Tariffs on some goods had previously climbed to as high as 145% for certain Chinese products, 58% for Indian goods and more than 50% for Ecuadorian products, before easing through subsequent trade adjustments.

The White House is now relying on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 10% tariff on imports through July 24, with the possibility of increasing that rate to 15% before Congress must vote on an extension.

Prins added that the framework is significantly less disruptive than the tariff structure in place in 2025 and should be more manageable for the seafood sector.

Prins also addressed the ongoing Section 301-related investigations into unfair trade practices, saying she does not expect those to recreate the broad-based tariff burden seen in 2025.

"I don't think the results of those are going to get us anywhere near the tariffs of last year," Prins said, adding that any resulting measures would likely be narrower and more product-specific.

Middle East conflict raises oil, shipping concerns

The industry is also facing near-term pressure from conflict in the Middle East, particularly through its impact on oil prices and global shipping routes.

The Strait of Hormuz has seen significant disruption since the start of the war, driving higher energy costs and creating uncertainty across global supply chains, Prins said.

Those disruptions are increasing costs tied to transportation, insurance and logistics, with broader implications for seafood trade flows and pricing.

The impact is expected to be short-term but could keep costs elevated over the coming months before stabilizing, Prins said.

Global exporters adapt to trade shifts

Seafood exporters adjusted rapidly in 2025 as the US became a more difficult destination due to tariffs.

Ecuador posted its highest export growth and profitability by shifting more sales to China, while India also increased its focus on China, and Indonesia expanded into Europe, according to Prins.

"The world outside the US ... adapted to the increase of costs coming into the US," Prins said.

Prins added that those diversification trends are likely to remain in place, even if exporters begin shipping more product back into the US under lower tariff conditions.

Value-added demand supports growth

Growth in value-added seafood products has been one of the strongest demand trends to emerge over the past year.

Value is no longer defined solely by price but also by convenience, time-saving, health benefits and ease of preparation, according to Prins.

Products that deliver convenience and ease of preparation have performed especially well, and private-label seafood has outperformed national brands in some retail channels, she said.

Following these value-added trends that align with broader consumer demand for healthier, faster meal options gives seafood suppliers another way to compete without relying solely on price, Prins said.

2026 sees more constructive outlook

The global seafood footprint continues to expand, with the market's expected growth supported by diversified trade flows and steady consumer demand, according to Prins.

Suppliers that adapted to last year's tariff environment now have a wider global market base, while the US market stands to benefit from lower tariffs and a consumer increasingly willing to pay for convenience and perceived value.

Value-oriented products currently show stronger momentum than premium offerings, although both segments remain important, Prins said.