Canadian oil sands GHG intensity continues 17-year decline

The trajectory of declining Canadian oil sands greenhouse gas emissions intensity is now a well-established trend. Since 2009, the earliest year covered by the S&P Global Energy oil sands emissions model, the GHG intensity of oil sands marketable product has declined by 31%.

Multiple factors contributed to reductions in intensity over the past 17 years. At the macro level, changes in production composition -- including the growth of less GHG-intensive steam-assisted gravity drainage operations (SAGD), the development of less intensive mining operations and the ramp-up of new facilities and optimization of legacy operations -- all contributed to a lower average oil sands intensity.

At a more granular level, thermal operations benefited from advancements in drilling technology -- including longer laterals and better well placement, more predictive maintenance, improved steam chamber management and the application of non-condensable gas co-injection, which lowered steam intensity (and thus natural gas emissions intensity) per barrel.

S&P Global Energy has also observed some smaller, more mature projects operating in more challenging reservoirs in more challenging areas -- all of which are often associated with higher emissions intensity -- shut-in or replaced. Additionally, older wells in more challenging areas of larger operations have been phased out and replaced.

Mining operations saw improved fleet optimization, better waste-heat integration, improved predictive maintenance and improved -- and shorter -- maintenance turnaround periods.

Many mining and thermal efficiency gains contributed to higher productivity, which spread similar levels of absolute emissions over higher oil output.

These improvements, coupled with larger step-out technologies such as the deployment of the Shell Quest carbon capture, utilization and storage project in 2015 and the completion of Suncor’s coke boiler phase-out in 2024, further reduced product-level emissions.

Since 2009, legacy integrated mining operations that market synthetic crude oil (SCO) have seen the greatest improvement in emission intensity: down 32%. This was followed by the ramp-up of newer unintegrated mines that market diluted bitumen, declining 18%.

In 2025, the marketable product-level GHG intensity of oil sands averaged 59 kgCO2/b, 2% lower than in 2024.¹ At the same time, production rose by 150,000 b/d from 2024 to 2025. This pushed absolute emissions up to an estimated 89 million metric tons of CO2e, 2% higher than in 2024.²

These changes indicate that the incremental barrel coming from the oil sands is of much lower intensity than the average. Between 2024 and 2025, the marginal incremental GHG intensity of oil sands production growth averaged 33 kgCO2e/b.³

There is a growing expectation that oil sands production growth may accelerate, with a potential expansion of processing and steam generation capacity. Without further expansion of CCUS capacity, an acceleration in absolute emissions growth should also be expected. However, the impact of production growth on oil sands’ GHG intensity is more complex.

As newer operations come online, they take time to ramp up and optimize, which is typically a more emissions-intensive period. SAGD dilbit is expected to dominate any acceleration in production growth. Given that SAGD is, on average, below the current oil sands intensity, depending on the scale and control of the ramp-up of these new facilities, greater SAGD dilbit volumes, coupled with further mining intensity improvements, could continue to push oil sands emissions intensity lower.

¹ Changes were made to S&P Global Energy’s oil sands emissions model for the 2026 update using 2025 data. These changes affected the entire study period. Prior versions included upstream natural gas production emissions from the export of surplus power from cogeneration, which resulted in a credit value of about 439 kgCO2e/MW. Upstream natural gas fuels were removed to align with other S&P Global Energy upstream carbon-intensity product benchmarks. This increased carbon intensity estimates overall, with a larger impact earlier in S&P Global Energy's survey period due to higher electrical export intensity. Other changes included updated cogeneration intensity data from Alberta Environment and Parks.

² S&P Global Energy’s estimate of absolute oil sands emissions differs from Canada’s National Inventory Report . Compared to the NIR, S&P Global Energy does not include Redwater Refinery or the Lloydminster heavy oil upgrader, which do not exclusively process non-oil sands products. This can result in a discrepancy of about 2-3 million mtCO2e depending on the year. After adjusting for this difference, S&P Global Energy’s absolute emissions track within 2% of the national inventory over the past five years, with a larger error in most recent year (2024), where S&P Global Energy estimate is greater than National Inventory.

³ The marginal emissions intensity is estimated as the total change in absolute emissions over the period divided by the change in production.