COMMODITY TRACKER: 5 charts to watch this week

Freight rates for Persian Gulf shipments have increased amid Hormuz transit disruptions, with Asian importers facing supply uncertainties. Additionally, the Australian carbon market shows robust growth. US soybean exports to China and German power prices are also in focus.

1. Freight rates surge as Hormuz transit disrupted

What's happening? Freight rates for Persian Gulf crude and product tankers have climbed following attacks between US-Israel and Iran, with vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz decreasing. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed crude cargo rates from Persian Gulf to China at $62.07/mt on March 2, up 35% from the previous assessment and 461% from the start of the year. AIS signals tracked by Market Intelligence Network show that nine vessels navigated the Strait on March 2 compared to 26 on March 1, 91 on Feb. 28 and an average of 135/day in February.

What's next? Asian markets, particularly India, face increased supply volatility. India imported an average of 2.623 million barrels/day via the Strait during the first two months of 2026, representing 52% of total imports. The Indian petroleum ministry has committed to ensuring domestic petroleum product supplies remain uninterrupted, pledging to work with state refiners to develop a strategy protecting retail consumers.

Related topic: US-Israeli Conflict with Iran

2. Australia's carbon market set for growth

What's happening? Australia's carbon market is experiencing an expansion, with the Clean Energy Regulator projecting 22 million-26 million Australian Carbon Credit Units to be issued in 2026. The market saw a record 21.7 million ACCUs issued in 2025, supported by new project registrations and method developments, Clean Energy Regulator's quarterly Carbon Market Report released Feb. 27. Platts assessed Generic ACCUs at A$36.25/mtCO2e on March 2, with total ACCU holdings reaching 60.7 million by the end of 2025.

What's next? The market anticipates a potential supply crunch later this decade as demand increases under the Safeguard Mechanism, the CER noted. The market is paying close attention to the Safeguard surrender activity leading up to the March 31 deadline and to data on Safeguard Mechanism Credits to be issued on April 15, which will reveal the market's supply and demand balance. Preliminary data show a 2.4% reduction in covered emissions, from 135.9 million mtCO2e in 2023-24 to 132.7 million mtCO2e in 2024-25.

3. US soybean exports fall as China shifts sourcing

What's happening? US soybean exports in marketing year 2025-26 (September-August) were 19% down on the year at 35.7 million metric ton, the US Department of Agriculture data showed Feb. 26. The primary reason behind the decline is lower shipments to China, US-based market participants said. So far in MY 2025-26, China has committed to purchase 10.66 million mt of US soybeans, down 49% year over year, USDA data showed. China imposed a 13% import tariff on US soybeans, including a 3% most-favored-nation rate and a 10% retaliatory tariff introduced in response to US duties in April 2025.

What's next? Despite the US Supreme Court striking down most tariffs imposed under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act on Feb. 20, according to market participants, soybean exports to China are unlikely to increase as the US imposed a temporary 10% global duty. China levies a 3% MFN tariff on the Brazilian crop. With prices favoring Brazil, any rise in US shipments would depend on political signals around the upcoming meeting of US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping in Beijing from March 31 to April 2, according to Vladimir Zinkovski, S&P Global Energy CERA analyst.

4. German power prices fall on mild weather

What's happening? German day-ahead baseload power prices dropped 13% week over week to Eur74.95/MWh between Feb. 23 and March 1, according to exchange Epex Spot. CustomWeather data showed temperatures averaging nearly 4 C above seasonal norms. System data indicated electricity demand decreased 8% to just over 56 GW, the weakest since early 2026. Solar generation more than doubled to over 7 GW, while gas generation declined by over 25% to 8 GW.

What's next? Entso-e transparency data reveals the 632 MW Niederaussem G lignite unit is expected to return to service on March 3 after being offline since Feb. 25. EEX data showed the German week 11 baseload power product settled at Eur84.21/MWh on Feb. 27, representing a 2% increase in the session. Market dynamics continue to be influenced by temperature fluctuations, renewable generation and thermal power plant availability.

5. US DDGS finds strong Asian market

What's happening? US dried distillers grains with solubles exporters remain focused on steady Asian demand, supported by strong container flows and competitive pricing. South Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia are the main Asian importers, consistently ranking among the top US export destinations, according to market participants. Container freight rates to Southeast Asia remain historically low, according to brokers and traders. Despite challenges from cold weather and low Mississippi River levels, offers for March-April shipments into Vietnam were seen at $258–$260/mt CFR.

What's next? Market participants expect Asian demand to remain resilient, especially as Brazilian DDGS is increasingly directed to China. That shift could open more opportunities for US product across Southeast Asia, Turkey and Europe. Still, buying patterns may stay mixed, with some feed mills covering nearby needs and others delaying purchases amid inverse market structures and expectations for softer prices later in the year. Expanding ethanol production could also boost global DDGS supply and temper rallies.

Reporting and analysis by Thomas Washington, Sambit Mohanty, Sayona Anna John, Sampad Nandy, Himanshu Chauhan, Lena Dias Martins, Paola Caballeros, Edward Low