Energy and Climate Scenarios

S&P Global Commodity Insights offers global energy scenarios, net zero cases, climate-related data, and expert analysis to support corporate strategy, investments, and decision-making in the energy transition.

Evaluating business strategies in a changing environment and testing against the very significant fuel type changes in the future under low emissions or net zero cases, is fast becoming a requirement of companies, shareholders, and investors. Therefore, the use of future scenarios is a critical component of the decision-making process.

Key questions this service answers:

How fast will various transitions take place and change the use of energy types?
What are the ways in which the world could move to a low emissions pathway that reaches the Paris Climate agreement goals?
What policies and metrics are governments using to affect climate change and air pollution?
How and where will hydrocarbons compete if demand declines in the future?
What are the technology enablers and costs?
How will competitive advantage change?

2023 Scenarios and Net-Zero cases: Future energy outlooks emerging from a volatile world Discover the different pathways to a net-zero future

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Gas, Power, and Climate Solutions Hub Access selected energy research, analysis, and insights in one integrated platform

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Energy and Climate Scenarios include three bottom-up plausible energy-Integrated forecasts to 2050 and two net-zero cases that are constructed backward starting with a predetermined end point of global net-zero emissions by 2050. The net-zero cases include a “bridge” from the Green Rules scenario that allows for existing energy infrastructure to adjust over the next 5–10 years before embarking on a global greening effort. This transition period is a pragmatic solution to the enormous challenge of completely decarbonizing the global economy over a period of fewer than three decades. See the image below for an overview of our scenarios and net-zero cases.

Deliverables include:

Energy Scenarios and Net-zero cases: data sets, descriptions, and analysis of implications
Scenarios signposts
Climate policy country profiles for the G20 countries
Climate Energy Transition Indices
Strategic insights and reports
Analytics dashboards
APIs
Workshops and webinars
Access to experts

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Expert

Rick Vidal

Rick is responsible for coordinating across the energy, economics, chemicals and automotive sectors at S&P Global Commodity Insights to build and continually update the company's long-term energy scenario outlooks, as well as help inform customers of the broad range of dynamics driving the global energy business. He directs research for the S&P Global Commodity Insights Energy and Climate Scenarios service and is a principal thought leader in S&P Global Commodity Insights ongoing scenario analysis and development. Before joining S&P Global Commodity Insights , Rick worked with Sandia National Laboratories, performing comparative studies of international energy policies and technology programs.Rick holds a Bachelor of Arts from Boston University and an Master of Arts from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the United States.

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Paul McConnell

Paul is an Executive Director with the Energy and Climate Scenarios team at S&P Global Commodity Insights. His work covers energy and carbon markets, long-term decarbonisation trends, climate policy, and strategic responses to climate change and the energy transition. He is highly experienced in both development of energy and climate scenarios, as well as their application in assessing climate-related risk and opportunity for organisations across the oil & gas, power, industry and financial sectors. Prior to S&P Global Commodity Insights, Paul led the climate transition risk team for a leading global sustainability consultancy. He also has many years' experience working in research roles across the energy industry.Paul holds an MSc in Global Environmental Change and International Policy from Imperial College, London.

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