OPEC asks: What peak oil?

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OPEC has made it a mission to rebut any notions of peak oil demand, and in its latest World Oil Outlook, it is raising the stakes. 

Global oil consumption will keep rising through at least 2050, OPEC says, to hit 122.9 million b/d – up nearly 20% from current levels. 

That’s an upward revision from last year’s World Oil Outlook, and it’s because countries are prioritizing energy security over the transition, OPEC says. 

It's an aggressive forecast – at odds with many others, who see oil demand peaking within the next decade, if not sooner, thanks largely to EVs. At S&P Global Commodity Insights, our analysts see liquids demand steadily declining after 2031. 

To meet its own forecast and satisfy all this coming demand, OPEC and its allies will have to do much of the heavy lifting themselves. 

The OPEC+ alliance will have to supply 15 million b/d more crude and NGLs by 2050 to keep the market balanced – an effort that will require trillions of dollars of capital spending. 

It’s a job the group says it’s up for – as long as fears of peak demand don’t scare away investors.