US container import volumes in 2020 to exceed 2019 after late surge: NRF

New York — US container import volumes across 12 major ports are on track to exceed 2019 volumes as a peak-season surge overcame a sharp dropoff in volumes earlier in the year, the National Retail Federation said Dec. 9.

US imports are expected to end the year at around 21.8 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), matching 2018 as the busiest year on record with an annual increase of 0.8% over 2019, according to the NRF's Global Port Tracker.

Consumer demand for foreign goods failed to weaken as expected at the end of the typical July-October peak shipping season, as coronavirus pandemic-related lockdowns across the country shifted consumer spending away from services and travel.

"With inventories low but demand growing, we have witnessed a surge in imports as retailers try to keep up," said Ben Hackett, principal at trade consulting firm Hackett Associates. "The dramatic shift to online shopping coupled with the expectation of next-day delivery is also spurring the growth of imports at warehouses for major online sellers, who need to have enough stock on hand not just to meet demand, but to meet it instantly."

US import volumes likely peaked in October at 2.21 million TEUs, but November was still the fourth-busiest month on record at around 2.07 million TEUs, according to preliminary estimates from NRF.

From there, the trade association forecasts US import volumes to soften to 1.91 million TEUs in December, 1.86 million TEUs in January, and 1.55 million TEUs in February.

"We've gone from not knowing whether we would be able to get merchandise from China to having a surplus of goods when stores were closed to having to meet pent-up demand as consumers returned," NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold said. "At this point, retailers have seen a successful holiday season so far and goods are reaching the shelves."

The NRF's Global Port Tracker provides historical data and forecasts for the US ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York/New Jersey, Savannah, the Port of Virginia, Houston, Seattle/Tacoma, Oakland, Charleston, Port Everglades, Miami, and Jacksonville.