Spain sees US corn gain traction; Ukraine’s presence wanes

US corn is gaining traction in the Spanish market as one of the most competitive origins, while Ukraine -- historically a major supplier -- is losing ground due to high prices.

In the week to Oct. 7, market participants in both Spain and Ukraine had mixed opinions on how long this trend will last. Some believe the decline is temporary, expecting competitive prices from Ukraine and higher imports once harvest pressure sets in.

"This is the reality at the moment. We will have to see what effects the harvest pressure in Ukraine will have," a Madrid-based broker said.

"I don't believe this is structural. The US is cheaper (on paper), but once Ukraine decides to sell, it will be full on," a Barcelona-based importer said.

However, skepticism persists among others in the market. Sellers in Ukraine doubt the possibility of strong shipments to Spain in the near future.

"I'm not seeing any flow of Ukrainian corn to Spain anytime soon," one seller said, while another added, "With current prices in Ukraine, I'm not sure we will ship large quantities to Spain."

Meanwhile, a second Spanish importer said, "It ultimately depends on the Ukrainian farmer. We've seen with the wheat crop that they withheld, and there's been no harvest pressure. I'm not sure we'll see massive price drops in corn."

Despite the drop in corn prices following the harvest of the new crop, the current FOB levels remain high compared with those from the US. Additionally, demand from neighboring countries, such as Turkey, is supporting corn prices, which were elevated at the start of the season due to harvest delays.

Offers for US corn CIF Spain were last heard at $236/mt, compared with $239/mt CIF for Ukrainian corn.

Given the competitiveness of US corn, most ships arriving in Spain are from the US, according to the broker.

Ukrainian corn exports to Spain dropped from nearly 5.4 million metric tons in the marketing year 2023-24 (July-June) to 2.9 million mt in MY 2024-25, according to EU Commission data. In contrast, US corn exports increased from 115,000 mt to over 2.6 million mt.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Ukrainian Corn FOB Black Sea at $215/mt, and FOB US Gulf Coast at $201.48/mt on Oct. 6. Freight from Ukraine and the US to Spain was last heard at $28/mt and $36/mt, respectively.