CHINA DATA: July gasoil exports seen soaring 88% MOM on better margins

Chinese oil companies are preparing to boost clean oil product outflows in July, with gasoil shipments anticipated to jump by 88% month over month as export margins began to recover in mid-June, industry sources told Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, on June 27.

Gasoil exports are expected to rise to about 640,000 mt from around 340,000 mt planned for June. Refineries have accelerated their exports due to improved margins, driven by stronger oil prices in the wake of the Iran-Israel conflict, according to a Sinopec refinery source in South China.

A Beijing-based analyst said that theoretical export margins for gasoil reached $2.5/b around June 20. However, these margins turned negative, dropping to about minus $5/b as of June 26 as crude prices fell.

The planned increase in exports is in line with market expectations, as refineries generally ramp up throughput in July following the maintenance season. Furthermore, gasoil demand in China has stabilized after the harvest season, prompting the need to export additional gasoil cargoes.

Total clean oil product exports for July are projected to reach 3.88 million mt, representing an 8.7% increase from the planned volumes in June.

Gasoline outflows are expected to see only a modest increase relative to gasoil exports, with about 760,000 mt targeted compared with 650,000 mt in June. The export volume for jet fuel is projected at 2.48 million mt, a slight decrease from the 2.58 million mt planned for June.

Top export outlets

In May, China shipped 105,300 mt of gasoline to Mexico, marking a 48.3% increase from the previous month, according to General Administration of Customs data. This uptick followed a pause in trade between October 2024 and March 2025. Mexico was the second-biggest destination for gasoline outflows in May after Singapore.

In the first five months of 2025, Mexico received 176,000 mt of Chinese gasoline, surging 149.6% year over year. Analysts attributed the increase to stronger Mexican demand and competitive Chinese pricing.

Meanwhile, the Philippines accounted for 64% of China's May gasoil exports, absorbing 322,000 mt and reinforcing its position as the top buyer. From January to May, the Philippines imported 1.09 million mt of gasoil, a 3.9% year over year increase. This represented 44% of China's total gasoil exports, an 11-percentage-point rise from 2024.

China's total gasoil exports from January to May fell 44.4% year over year to 2.486 million mt.

Top five destinations for China's gasoline, gasoil exports (Unit: '000 mt)

Gasoline

Gasoil

*Includes other outlets

Source: General Administration of Customs