Mexico likely to resume fuel import permit authorizations amid supply risk concerns: trader

After years of persistent efforts by the Mexican government to block the participation of private companies in the local fuels business in favor of the state-owned oil and gas company Pemex, some market participants are beginning to sense a potential policy shift aimed at securing supply.

To meet the growing demand in the country, President Claudia Sheinbaum will likely resume issuing permits for fuel imports, according to Santiago Arroyo Seguedo, head of trading and consultancy firm Ursus Energy, which also operates as a retail station franchise in central Mexico.

In March 2025, roughly 430,000 b/d of fuels were imported into Mexico, according to PETROIntelligence, a local provider of prices and data for the fuels market. Of those, roughly 110,000 b/d were imported by private companies, down from an all-time peak of 205,000 b/d in June 2021, the data shows.

For the first week of May, total gasoline demand in the country was 762,000 b/d, official data shows. Overall gasoline demand in Mexico is expected to fall by 3.3% in 2025 compared with 2024 to 767,000 b/d, according to S&P Commodity Insights. For 2026, demand is expected to be 788,000 b/d, according to Commodity Insights.

"The Sheinbaum team is sending the message that it is trying hard to fix some of the problems it inherited from its predecessors, like tax evasion related to fuel imports," Arroyo Seguedo told Commodity Insights in an interview on May 26.

In recent weeks, the government has collaborated with US law enforcement agencies to crack down on practices that involve disguising fuel imports—primarily diesel and gasoline—by reporting them to customs under different categories.

"It got out of control, to the point where it equated to roughly 40% of the market," Arroyo Seguedo said, noting that many people from different beats of life were involved, from organized crime to government officials and even some authorized Pemex distributors.

Some of those importers will choose to do it the right way, but others will just disappear, creating some shortages, Arroyo Seguedo said, noting that it has already started happening in some areas of the country.

According to regional media outlets, there is a shortage of gasoline supply in certain central states, such as Tlaxcala, Puebla, and Hidalgo.

"Because they are small places, nobody is paying attention," but if no measures are taken, it could extend to the capital city, he said.

In the past, Mexico would source some of its fuels and naphthas from a variety of countries like the Netherlands, Korea, Russia and China, according to data by S&P Global Commodities at Sea, though in recent years the country has reduced its diversification, relying mostly on US products, CAS data shows.

Overall, Mexican fuel imports have decreased since 2019 due to government policies aimed at increasing "energy sovereignty." According to Commodity Insights, Mexico's overall 2025 gasoline imports are expected to fall 11.2% compared to 2024 to 458,000 b/d. And this trend is expected to exacerbate as a new refinery called Olmeca, located in the Dos Bocas port in Tabasco, begins operations in 2026.

"The government will likely realize that it cannot meet demand by itself and again grant import permits," Arroyo Seguedo said.

During the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Mexican government undertook a plan aimed at helping Mexico become self-sufficient in the production of fuels and no longer depend on imported products, mostly from the US. The plan included the construction of a new refinery in Mexico, the seventh in the country, and the 50% stake it did not already own in another refinery in the US.

However, as the government failed to pass a sweeping reform to grant more powers to Pemex, it toughened regulations and cancelled many import permits, including those in the hands of international giants Vitol and Trafigura. In 2021, both companies were banned for two years from operating in the country on corruption allegations.

"They will have to grant more permits," Arroyo said, noting that in his view, the small regional distributors should fill that void through their own permits.