CHINA DATA: Crude throughput set to decline in March-April amid maintenance

The crude throughput at China's refineries is expected to decline in both March and April, with the peak maintenance season kicking off in the second half of March, data from Platts showed March 31, following strong throughput in the first two months of 2025.

The downturn comes as a combined 868,000 b/d of refining capacity has been offline since mid-March, with another 790,000 b/d scheduled for maintenance in April, Platts data showed.

Sinopec, the world's largest refiner by capacity, has had four of its refineries offline -- Jiujiang, Qilu, Gaoqiao and Beihai -- since the second half of March, and was the main contributor to the drop in throughput in March.

These shutdowns, along with CNOOC's Huizhou Petrochemical, represent a combined capacity of 1.278 million b/d.

The offline capacity in the state refining sector will increase further in April as PetroChina's Jinxi Petrochemical and three refineries under Sinopec will enter scheduled maintenance from the beginning of the month.

Private mega refiner Hengli Petrochemical will also trim its crude throughput next month. According to sources, it will shut its 1.5 million mt/year ethylene plant and downstream units for about one month from mid-April for maintenance.

The heavy maintenance in March and April will likely limit China's crude throughput from the higher levels seen in January-February, according to market analysts.

"The country's crude throughput is likely to fall by 100,000 b/d month over month in March, and a further 200,000 b/d in April," said a Beijing-based analyst.

New export quotas

The maintenance-driven production cuts follow strong crude throughput in early 2025.

Chinese refiners' crude throughputs averaged 14.81 million b/d (119.17 million mt) in the first two months of this year, up 3.8% from January-February 2024 to the highest level since 15.08 million b/d last March, National Bureau of Statistics data released March 17 showed. NBS did not release individual monthly data for the first two months.

However, market conditions have been such that there has been little incentive to maintain high runs in March-April.

On the demand side, China's latest round of export quotas for oil products is not likely to help sustain the crude throughputs in April either, according to refinery sources.

China's Ministry of Commerce issued its second batch of export quotas of 12.8 million mt for clean oil products gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel, while 5.2 million mt were allocated for low sulfur marine fuels around March 28, Platts reported earlier.

In view of the relatively weak export margins -- which were negative for both gasoil and gasoline -- the new round of export quotas is not likely to help lift the product outflows in April, sources said.

China's gasoline demand has also been quickly displaced amid the increasing ownership of new energy vehicles. NEV sales accounted for 49.5% of total new passenger vehicle sales in February, up by 15 percentage points year over year, according to data from the China Automobile Dealers Association.

Sinopec leads cut in March

Following the onset of maintenance, the average utilization at Sinopec was lowered by 4.1 percentage points from a month earlier to around 81.6% in March.

Despite the heavy maintenance to be carried out in the year's first half, Sinopec plans to increase its crude throughput by 1.1% year over year to 255 million mt (5.13 million b/d) in 2025.

A Sinopec executive said the company needs feedstocks for chemical production, requiring higher throughput despite projecting a decrease in domestic oil products.

In comparison, state-run oil giant PetroChina plans to cut its crude throughput by 3.2% year over year to 3.65 million b/d (1.33 billion barrels) in 2025, compared with the 3.77 million b/d achieved in 2024.

The combined crude throughputs at the two oil giants are targeted at 8.78 million b/d in 2025, down from 8.82 million b/d in 2024.

Platts data for the state-run sector covers 26 Sinopec refineries, 22 PetroChina refineries, CNOOC's Huizhou Petrochemical, and Sinochem's Quanzhou Petrochemical for March with a combined capacity of 10.59 million b/d. These refineries targeted a crude processing volume of 8.78 million b/d in March, down from 8.98 million b/d in February.

Private refiners mixed

The combined crude throughput at the four private mega refiners will likely increase to 1.824 million b/d in March from 1.76 million b/d in February following the start-up of Yulong Petrochemical's new crude distillation unit, according to Platts data.

The 20 million mt/year Yulong Petrochemical started up its second CDU around March 20, with the initial utilization rate at around 60%-65%, according to sources with direct knowledge of the matter.

Following the startup of the new CDU, the refinery's average utilization rate was lowered to around 74% of its 10 million mt/year capacity, from 103% in February.

Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical and Shenghong Petrochemical generally lowered their run rates slightly month over month in March, according to sources.

However, Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) refinery continued to operate at around 103% of capacity in March, unchanged from a month earlier.

Small independent refineries in Shandong province raised their utilization rate to around 52.8% in March from 51.3% in February, according to data from JLC.

The slightly higher utilization rates followed higher feedstock arrivals in February as well as improved refining margins, according to JLC, which will likely continue to support the run rates in April, according to an analyst.

Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights, JLC