Russian Gazprom's non-CIS gas sales at new 2021 low in November at 12.7 Bcm

Gazprom's gas sales in non-CIS countries in November averaged just 423 million cu m/d, according to an S&P Global Platts analysis of the latest sales data published by the Russian gas group Dec. 1.

That is the lowest average monthly volume so far in 2021, with the previous low seen in October at 433 million cu m/d, according to Platts calculations.

In its regular sales update, Gazprom said total deliveries to export markets -- excluding countries of the former Soviet Union -- in the first 11 months of the year were 171.5 Bcm. That meant a November total of just 12.7 Bcm.

Gazprom's sales in the Far Abroad -- traditionally Europe plus Turkey minus the countries of the former Soviet Union -- reached an all-time high of 201 Bcm in 2018.

However, the sales data are now said to include China, with a comparison of the data for the first six months tallying with Gazprom's interim report on first-half sales in non-CIS countries plus China.

Gazprom has said previously it expects its gas sales in Europe and Turkey for 2021 as a whole to total 183 Bcm, a level excluding Chinese deliveries.

However, Gazprom officials declined to give any new guidance for this year or for 2022 on a third-quarter earnings call on Nov. 29.

Without China, the non-CIS deliveries in the period January-November would be closer to 163 Bcm, according to Platts estimates. That would mean full-year 2021 supplies to Europe and Turkey are unlikely to reach the 183 Bcm previously guided.

November lows

Gazprom has come in for criticism for not increasing gas supplies via Ukraine and Belarus to help ease sky-high gas prices, but the company has said its focus remains on meeting its European customer obligations.

S&P Global Platts assessed the TTF day-ahead price at a record high of Eur116.10/MWh on Oct. 5, with price volatility continuing through October and into November.

The TTF day-ahead contract was priced Nov. 30 at Eur90.80/MWh, a 500% year-on-year increase.

Gazprom officials said Nov. 29 that it had focused on refilling its Russian storage stocks over the summer, and had been producing significantly more gas in 2021 than it did a year ago.

In its Dec. 1 update, it said production was 467.6 Bcm in the period January-November, an increase of 14.7% year on year. In August, Gazprom said it expected to produce 510 Bcm of gas in 2021, which would be a 10-year high.

Supplies to the domestic Russian market increased by 15.8%, or by 30.4 Bcm, in the period January-November, it said.

Biggest markets

In Germany -- comfortably the gas group's biggest export market -- sales rose by 16.8% year on year in the first 11 months, Gazprom said, without providing actual volumes.

However, sales slowed in November in Germany. The year-on-year increase for the first 10 months of 2021 was 23.4%.

Sales in Turkey also rose strongly in the year to date, increasing by 83.7%, Gazprom said. But the growth rate was again lower compared with that reported for the first 10 months of 2021 of 110.4%.

Romania (up 221.8%) and Serbia (up 85.8%) also saw significant year-on-year increases for the period, it said, though both saw slower growth rates than for the January-October period.

Other countries saw growth in sales, including Poland (7.5%), Greece (12.2%), Italy (19.5%), Bulgaria (43.8%), Slovenia (53.9%), and Finland (9.1%).

"The countries to which Gazprom has already exported more gas than in the whole of 2020 -- Germany, Turkey, Italy, Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia -- were joined following the results of the second half of November by Greece, Slovenia, Switzerland, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina," Gazprom said.

The company's sales -- which include gas supplied by pipeline and from owned capacity in European gas storage sites -- in Europe and Turkey were 175 Bcm last year as demand was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Gazprom also said Dec. 1 that its supplies to China via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline continued to increase. "Since Nov. 2, at the request of the Chinese side, they have exceeded Gazprom's daily contractual obligations by more than a third on a daily basis," it said.

"At the same time, on Nov. 21, deliveries were higher by a record 35.8%," it said.