Brazilian supermarkets see shift in consumer preferences from beef to chicken and eggs

Rising protein prices are driving Brazilian consumers to swap beef for more affordable options like eggs and chicken in supermarkets.

Volumes of beef sold by supermarkets declined by 6.2% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, according to a nationwide study from the São Paulo state supermarkets association, APAS.

Pork consumption also decreased by 5.6% on the same basis, whereas poultry volumes rose by 3.4% and eggs increased by 3.6%.

"Animal protein consumption is susceptible to price changes," APAS economist Felipe Queiroz told Platts. "Consumers are constantly seeking to replace items as relative prices change."

Approximately 39% of surveyed consumers reported replacing beef with alternatives while grocery shopping, as domestic meat prices surged by an average of 23% in the first quarter compared to the previous year.

The replacement rate of beef is second only to coffee, which has recently faced the biggest price increase. Around 62% of consumers have replaced coffee with alternatives, following a 69% price increase year over year in the first quarter.

"Beef prices have been affected by strong demand in the export market and the currency rate," Queiroz added.

The change in grocery shopping has not yet reached major beef producers. Local beef producer Minerva sold 200,500 mt to the domestic market in the first quarter, up by 40.3% year over year. Similarly, Marfrig sold 139,000 mt to the domestic market, an increase of 32.4% on the year.

According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, IBGE, Brazil produced 10.23 million mt of beef in 2024, a 14% increase year over year and a record high. Despite the strong increase in Brazilian beef production in recent years, external demand has outpaced supply, highlighting Brazil's protein export relevance in 2024.

Data from the Brazilian Foreign Trade Agency, Secex, revealed that beef exports reached a record 2.54 million mt of fresh, chilled, and frozen meat in 2024, marking a 27% increase year over year and accounting for 25% of Brazil's beef production.

Strong overseas demand and a growing need for affordable protein from importing countries have boosted Brazilian beef exports. Additionally, the exchange rate scenario in 2024 contributed to this growth, as the US dollar strengthened against the Brazilian real. From January to July 2024, the average exchange rate was 5.09/$1, reflecting a 12% devaluation of the Brazilian real during that period. In the second half of 2024, the average exchange rate increased by 12% to 5.69/$1, resulting in an overall annual drop of 26%.

Preliminary data from IBGE suggests that the relationship between Brazilian beef production and external demand is likely to continue in the first quarter of 2025 under current conditions. In Q1 2025, beef production increased by 1.6% compared to Q1 2024. During the same period, exports grew by 11% compared to Q1 2024, accounting for approximately 24% of total demand.

Sources indicate that demand for chicken is also on the rise. "The domestic market has never been so heated," a source from a poultry supplier said on the sidelines of the APAS Show food fair on May 15. "The Brazilian consumer is eating more chicken, especially the most accessible cuts," the source added.

Chicken leg prices have increased to 8.10 Real/kg from 6.00 Real/kg previously, but demand has remained strong, according to the source.

Consequently, the National Animal Protein Association, ABPA, estimates that average chicken consumption per person will increase by 1.9% in 2025, to 46.6 kg.

Seafood and fisheries suppliers have failed to benefit from this substitution trend seen in other proteins. According to experts, consumption is still linked to seasonal factors.

"We are noticing a decrease in fisheries consumption after Easter, and it is likely to remain sluggish until September, when winter ends," according to Lucas Almeida, commercial supervisor at Mar e Rio Pescados.

Seafood consumption is still tied to seasonality, as opposed to other proteins purchased more routinely.

"Usually, seafood consumption is tied to holidays and summer, except in the coastal regions," Queiroz said.