EU applauds Turkey's more 'constructive' attitude to East Med relations

Istanbul — The EU has tentatively applauded Turkey's stepping back from open confrontation with Greece and Cyprus over disputed maritime zones in the East Mediterranean, already home to a number of huge gas discoveries.

These confrontations have seen Turkish vessels drilling in maritime areas claimed by both Turkey and Cyprus over the past two years, and last year a Turkish seismic survey vessel surveying in areas claimed by both Turkey and Greece.

In a report prepared for the European Council, the European Commission High Representative for Foreign Affairs noted that Turkey "has shown a calmer, more constructive attitude on various issues, including in its bilateral relations with several EU member states."

The report makes a list of recommendations aimed at increasing dialogue and contacts between the EU and Ankara on various levels.

These include the reopening of high-level contacts, suspended as one of a number of measures taken against Turkey in response to Turkish vessels drilling in maritime areas claimed by Cyprus.

The report recommends that these could include dialogue on key issues such as the economy, energy, transport, political developments, foreign and security policies, as well as initiating contacts on other new topics such as the green deal/climate change.

However, the report also notes "the deteriorating domestic situation in Turkey", cautioning that the "process of de-escalation remains fragile" and that it will take time to see if it is sustainable.

The report explains that should Ankara "not move forward constructively [...] but instead return to renewed unilateral actions or provocations in breach of international law in particular in the Eastern Mediterranean" that it will face political and economic consequences.

These could include "smart, scalable yet reversible restrictive measures" in addition to those already imposed.

Those listed included further restrictions on economic cooperation, including on the operations of the European Investment Bank (EIB) and other financial institutions, measures targeting specific areas of the Turkish economy including "additional measures in the energy and related sectors, such as import/export bans on certain goods and technologies."

TANAP loan

Restrictions on the EIB would likely further delay the disbursement of the second $330 million tranche of loans agreed for Turkey's state gas transit grid operator Botas, towards its contribution to the cost of development of the 31 Bcm/year TANAP gas pipeline that carries Azeri gas across Turkey, and on via the TAP pipeline to Europe.

Construction of the TANAP pipeline was completed in November 2018, with the EIB agreeing a loan of $600 million to Botas the following month.

However, due to the ongoing disputes between Brussels and Ankara, the first tranche of $270 million was only paid in July last year, while payment of the second tranche is believed to have been delayed due to the limited sanctions imposed by the EU in response to Turkey's East Mediterranean drilling activities, which saw a number of TPAO officials "blacklisted."

The EIB last week confirmed to S&P Global Platts in writing that: "The signature of the second tranche ($330 million) of TANAP remains subject to the approval of the EIB's governing bodies. Currently, it is not known if and when it will be signed."

Such restrictions as outlined in the report could also affect Ankara's ability to push forward with plans to develop the Sakarya gas field in the Black Sea, for which state upstream operator has employed drill ships crewed by experienced international crews, and has recently been reported as having opened talks with possible international partners with deep water production experience.

Tensions between Turkey and the EU reached historic heights in the second half of 2020 after Turkish survey vessel Oruc Reis began seismic surveying close to the Greek island of Kastellorizo, but were reduced after Ankara and Athens agreed to commence a dialogue aimed at resolving the issue.

Subsequently, Turkey has withdrawn all its drilling and surveying vessels to port, with the exception of the Oruc Reis, which is operating in Turkish waters close to Antalya.

The drill ship Yavuz, which has drilled in waters claimed by Cyprus, is currently in port at Silifke on Turkey's East Mediterranean coast, while the Barbaros Hayreddin Pasa survey vessel, which has surveyed near Cyprus, is currently in port near Istanbul.

Turkey's other two drill ships, which were last year deployed to the Black Sea, are both currently in port at Filyos on Turkey's Black Sea coast.