13 Feb 2020 | 14:24 UTC — London
Spanish gas demand forecast at 384.4 TWh for March 2020-February 2021: Enagas
Highlights
Summer gas demand due to fall 9% on an annual basis
Gas-for-power demand forecast to fall sharply in 2020
Spanish conventional use of gas seen largely stable
London — Natural gas demand in Spain is forecast to fall on an annual basis in 2020 with steep fall in gas-for-power demand seen during the summer months, data from Enagas released late Wednesday showed.
Enagas forecasts demand for the March 2020-February 2021 period at 384.4 TWh (36.3 Bcm) in the company's medium scenario, which would come in 4% lower on the March 2019-February 2020 period if February gas demand is in line with the 36 TWh forecast.
The low scenario forecast stood at 353.2 TWh and the high scenario at 416.2 TWh, and marks a 1.4% reduction from the initial forecast made in September last year.
The latest forecast means that 2020 gas demand will still likely be 13% above the five-year annual average of 339.2 TWh but below 2019's total.
Total gas demand in 2019 was 398 TWh, consisting of 287 TWh of convetional demand and 111 TWh of gas to power demand.
The bulk of the losses are due to be seen from a steep fall in the use of gas in the generation mix, primarily due to expectations of stronger renewable generation output for the months ahead.
Spanish gas-for-power demand is forecast at 48.1 TWh for the Summer 2020 delivery period, which would stand 40% lower than the 67.2 TWh used during the last summer period.
However, conventional gas demand is due to come in at 124.3 TWh next summer, only a slight increase on the 122.7 TWh seen last summer, meaning that total Spanish gas demand is due to come in 9% down in Summer 2020 compared to Summer 2019.
For the Q4 2020 period, Spanish gas demand is forecast at a total of 103 TWh, less than 1% down on the 103.8 TWh consumed during the Q4 2019 period.
The weaker gas-for-power demand could put pressure on the PVB hub with no signs of the recent wave of LNG arrivals slowing down in the near future, with Asian LNG pricing still under pressure due to concerns over the coronavirus dampening demand in China.
S&P Global Platts assessed the PVB Summer 2020 contract at an even Eur10/MWh on Wednesday, a mere 40 euro cent premium to the Dutch TTF equivalent.
The PVB Summer 2020 contract was assessed at Eur18.50/MWh on the first day of the Winter 2019/20 delivery period, a premium of Eur1.40/MWh over the TTF sister contract.