Ice storm knocks out power for more than 300,000 across Texas; prices weaken

A brutal ice storm forecast to continue through Feb. 2 wrought havoc on power lines across central and eastern Texas early Feb. 1, which lightened loads and, in combination with plentiful power supply, weakened wholesale power prices in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

More than 300,000 electricity customers were without service around 2 pm CT Feb. 1, most along a line from Austin and San Antonio in Central Texas, northeast to the Oklahoma state line, according to PowerOutage.us.

But virtually all of the outages were due to breakdowns in the transmission and distribution system caused by ice on power lines or on nearby trees that fell and knocked down power lines, unlike the deadly mid-February 2021 winter storm that left about 4 million customers without electricity, some for days.

As of about 3 pm CT Feb. 2, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas website described grid conditions as "normal" with 6,750 MW of operating reserves.

Ice threat continues

The National Weather Service as of 2 pm CT Feb. 1 had issued an ice storm warning -- sleet mixed with freezing rain accumulating as much as a half inch -- for an area stretching from the Permian Basin in West Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, covering most of Arkansas, northwestern Mississippi and Tennessee. The warning was expected to expire at 9 am CT Feb. 2.

A winter storm warning, with periods of freezing rain accumulating to as much as a half inch, was in effect for a central swathe of Texas stretching from Del Rio on the Mexican border to the region where Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas state lines converge. The warning was expected to expire at 6 am CT Feb. 2.

Snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches was forecast for an area stretching from El Paso, Texas across southeast New Mexico, much of the Texas Panhandle, much of central Oklahoma and northern Arkansas. The warning was expected to expire at 9 am CT Feb. 2.

One factor in the February 2021 energy emergency was a lack of natural gas supply, but the Railroad Commission of Texas, which has jurisdiction over the state's intrastate oil and natural gas pipelines, had advised pipeline operators on Jan. 29 to prepare for severe winter conditions.

On Feb. 1, the Railroad Commission said: "The state's natural gas supply continues to hold steady to help provide heating to homes and fuel for electricity generation during the ongoing winter storm."

Nevertheless, ERCOT on Jan. 30 began notifying operators of generation contracted through its new Firm Fuel Supply Service, which requires on-site fuel storage or other firm supply arrangements, to prepare for deployment. ERCOT issued verbal dispatch instructions for 424 MW of capacity the afternoon of Jan. 30 and 455 MW on the afternoon of Jan. 31, but had not done so as of 2:30 pm Feb. 1.

"The state of Texas is working around the clock to keep Texans safe and warm over the course of this severe winter weather and flooding event," said Texas Governor Greg Abbott.

Loads strong, but weakening

Despite the outages, loads have remained strong, peaking at 65.6 GW on Jan. 31, 49.3% more than the five-year average of 43.9 GW for that date, according to ERCOT data. However, ERCOT forecast loads to peak at 62.6 GW Feb. 1, 62.3 GW Feb. 2 and 53.7 GW Feb. 3, well above those three days' five-year averages of around 44 GW.

Population-weighted temperatures averaged 34.2 degrees F Jan. 30, 30.5 F Jan. 31 and were forecast to average 32.5 F Feb. 1, 37.9 F for Feb. 2 and 41.6 F for Feb. 3, according to CustomWeather data. For the week, these are about 29% below normal.

After spiking to $161.19/MWh on Jan. 30, ERCOT North real-time on-peak locational marginal prices fell to $46.04/MWh Jan. 31, and averaged less than $39/MWh through noon CT Feb. 1. On the Intercontinental Exchange the morning of Feb. 1, day-ahead on-peak power was trading around $48.25/MWh for delivery Feb. 2, and around $30/MWh for delivery Feb. 3.

Austin Energy, the capital city's municipal electric utility, was hardest hit by the storm and said "some customers may be without power for 12 to 24 hours."

"In advance of severe storms, Austin Energy prepared by securing additional staff and resources," the utility said. "Austin Energy is working to restore power as quickly and safely as possible, but challenging conditions may slow down these efforts. Crews are driving on icy roadways and working with frozen equipment. Based on these changing conditions, it is not possible to provide estimated restoration times."