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About Commodity Insights
Energy Transition, LNG, Natural Gas, Emissions
January 13, 2025
HIGHLIGHTS
European gas prices higher after drone claim
All drones were shot down by air defense: military
TurkStream only Russian pipeline route to Europe
The European gas market was on high alert Jan. 13 after the Russian military claimed that Ukraine had targeted the Russkaya compressor station, which feeds gas for the TurkStream pipeline, in a failed drone attack on Jan. 11.
The benchmark Dutch TTF month-ahead price traded higher early Jan. 13, reaching almost Eur47.70/MWh by 1110 GMT, according to ICE data.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed TTF month-ahead price on Jan. 10 at Eur45.45/MWh.
The Russian military, cited by news agency Tass Jan. 13, said Ukraine had targeted the compressor station using nine unmanned aerial vehicles, all of which were shot down.
It said the attempted attack was designed to stop gas supplies to Europe via TurkStream. The Ukrainian government could not be reached for comment Jan. 13.
TurkStream has two 15.75 Bcm/year strings -- one that supplies the Turkish domestic market and the other that flows gas into Europe via Bulgaria.
It is now the only operational pipeline route for Russian gas supplies to Europe after flows via Ukraine were halted on Jan. 1 following the expiry of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement.
Deliveries into Europe via the European string of TurkStream at the Strandzha 2 entry point on the Turkey-Bulgaria border totaled 15.5 Bcm in 2024, up by 22% year on year.
Two of the main beneficiaries of gas via TurkStream are EU member Hungary and non-EU Serbia, which both maintain relatively close ties with Moscow.
Hungary, one of the few EU countries still importing significant volumes of Russian pipeline gas, agreed a 15-year deal with Russia's Gazprom in September 2021 for 4.5 Bcm/year and also imports additional volumes.
Total Russian gas exports to Hungary in 2023 exceeded 5.5 Bcm and were expected to reach almost 7 Bcm in 2024.
In October, Gazprom signed a memorandum of understanding on the potential to supply more gas to Hungary following a meeting in St. Petersburg between CEO Alexei Miller and Hungary's foreign minister Peter Szijjarto.
Russia is also in talks with Serbia about new contractual arrangements for gas deliveries ahead of the expiry of the existing contract in March 2025.
The latest Russian contract for gas supply to Serbia was agreed in May 2022 for the delivery of 2.2 Bcm/year at 100% oil-indexed prices.
Russian gas via TurkStream can also be delivered to Romania, Greece, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Bulgaria's Bulgargaz was cut off from Russian gas supplies in April 2022, but energy minister Vladimir Malinov said in May last year that there had been a return of Russian gas to Bulgaria through "intermediary" companies.