Copper, aluminium, nickel and zinc markets in deficit from Jan-Oct: WBMS

Global copper, aluminum, nickel and zinc markets registered deficits in the first 10 months of 2021, the World Bureau of Metals Statistics said Dec. 15.

The copper market recorded a deficit of 188,000 mt in the first ten months of 2021, following a deficit of 691,900 mt for the whole of 2020, WBMS said. Reported stocks, including LME off warrant stocks, at the end of October were 133,800 mt lower than at the end of December 2020.

Net deliveries out of Shanghai warehouses were 25,800 mt and Comex stocks fell 18,100 mt, it said.

"Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns will have distorted the trade statistics. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile," WBMS said in a statement.

World mine copper production between January and October was 17.69 million mt, 4.6% higher than in the 2020 period. Global refined production for the first 10 months of 2021 was 20.38 million mt, up 1.3%, with significant increases recorded in China (up 258,000 mt) and India (up 115,000 mt).

Global copper demand for the period was 20.57 million mt, compared with 20.70 million mt for the same months of 2020. Chinese apparent demand for the period January to October 2021 was 11.27 million mt which was 7.3% lower than the comparable period in 2020, WBMS said.

Aluminum

The calculated market balance for primary aluminum for the first 10 months of 2021 was a deficit of 1.366 million mt, following a surplus of 1.271 million mt recorded for the whole of 2020, according to WBMS.

Demand for primary aluminum in the period was 57.61 million mt, 4.419 million mt higher than in the comparable period in 2020, it said.

Total reported stocks fell during the first 10 months of 2021 to close at the end of the period 1.359 million mt below the December 2020 level, the bureau said.

Total LME stocks, including off warrant stocks, were 1.484 million mt at the end of October 2021 which compares with 2.917 million mt at the end of 2020, WBMS said.

Shanghai stocks increased in October and ended the period 62,000 mt above the December 2020 total. No allowance was made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia, it said.

Global production between January and October rose 4.1% on the year. Chinese output was estimated at 32.367 million mt despite lower availability of imported feedstocks in the first 10 months of the year, which accounts for about 58% of the world production total, WBMS said.

Nickel

The nickel market was in deficit in the 10-month period, with apparent demand exceeding production by 133,100 mt, WBMS said. In the whole of 2020, the calculated surplus was 84,000 mt.

Reported stocks held in the LME, including off warrant stocks, at the end of October were 135,000 mt lower than at the end of 2020. Refined production over January to October totaled 2.291 million mt and demand was 2.424 million mt, the bureau said.

Mine production in the period was 2.251 million mt, 238,000 mt above the comparable 2020 total, WBMS said.

World apparent demand was 441,000 mt higher than in the year-ago period, it said.

Zinc

The zinc market was in deficit by 5,400 mt in the January-October period, comparing with a surplus 612,000 mt recorded for the whole of 2020, WBMS said.

Reported stocks decreased by 2,600 mt during the period, which included a net increase in Shanghai of 42,000 mt over the period. LME stocks, including off warrant closed 48,100 mt below the December 2020 level. Total LME stocks represent 37% of the global total with the bulk of the metal held in Asian and US warehouses, it said.

Global refined production rose by 1.2% and demand was 6.5% higher than the levels recorded in the year earlier period, the bureau said.

World demand was 702,000 mt higher than for January to October 2020. Chinese apparent demand was 5.824 million mt which was 50% of the global total, it said.