German steel prices to remain stable in December: Platts survey

German steel prices are expected to enter a stable development over the next weeks as trading is predicted to remain slow, according to the Platts monthly steel sentiment survey for December.

At 53,with 50 denoting stability, the market is expecting a stable price development though producers appear marginally more bullish at 56 than the trading and stockholding sector at 50.

Uncertainty around the automotive industry and the sector's take up of steel volumes will remain a topic going into 2022. While recent cautious positive signals from the car industry for January, February has lifted the mood at steel mills somewhat, German mills still have extra volumes left to sell that have not been taken up by the auto industry during this quarter, putting pressure on spot price levels.

The Platts daily assessment for hot-rolled coil stood at Eur960/mt EXW Ruhr Dec 2, stable day on day, but down Eur60/mt from Nov 1.

Slow trading conditions in December

Trading remains usually slow in December and sources told S&P Global Platts that given the current market environment with uncertainty over short-term movements, this is likely to be the case until mid-January. This also means that stocks could remain at their current levels as most are not increasing inventories with spot purchases ahead of year-end and only doing back-to-back business. Steel service centers and stockholders said that they expect some material coming into warehouses from pre-orders done earlier and that they would not need as much material in January and February.

Inventories are expected to be stable overall at 51, but producers and the trading/stockholding sector were at odds in terms of expectations. Producers are expecting inventories to decrease at 38, whereas the stockholding business expects levels to increase at 65 over the coming weeks.

Latest data from German stockholder association BDS showed that stocks including long and flat steel reached 2.18 million mt in October at stockholders -- their highest for nearly two years.

Production is expected to increase slightly at 59 with traders/stockholders at 55 and producers at 63. German steelmaker Thyssenkrupp said Dec 2 they were aiming to increase steel shipments to 11 million mt in the current business year (October 2021 to September 2022). In the previous business year, Thyssenkrupp's steel unit shipped 9.99 million mt of steel.