North American steel, aluminum executives expecting modest growth in coming years: survey

Pittsburgh — North American steel and aluminum executives expect modest growth in demand for both products over the next three to five years, with a majority expecting to see significant infrastructure spending in the US in the next four years, Headwall Partners, an independent corporate finance and strategic advisory firm focused on metals and mining, said March 16.

Headwall's annual survey examines the perspectives of corporate leaders of the North American steel and metals industry regarding their outlook for sources and rates of sector growth as well as the impact of economic policy and politics on such growth. This year's survey, the fifth conducted by the group, also included expectations for the impact of President Joe Biden's administration as well as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

"This year's outlook survey draws some very interesting conclusions from senior sector executives, including an expectation for the return of inflation and higher taxes, a near-term correction in steel and aluminum prices, and the potential near-term elimination of the Section 232 import protections," Peter Scott, managing partner of Headwall Partners said in a statement.

According to the results, 55% of respondents expect a 9% or greater increase in revenue in 2021 over 2020, marking the highest one-year growth expectation in the history of the survey, likely resulting from the pandemic, Headwall noted.

Respondents are expecting to see no real change, or a modest increase in steel and aluminum imports in 2021, with 54% of respondents expecting the Biden administration to remove the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum within the next year.

Seventy-three percent said they expect Biden to implement a significant infrastructure spending plan in the next four years, with 61% believing infrastructure spending will be the policy of the Biden administration with the greatest positive impact on their company's growth.

Looking further at expectations for the Biden administration, 64% of respondents view the financial and economic impact of Biden administration policies as negative for the economy and 58% view those policies as being negative for their company, according to the results.

Forty-eight percent of respondents said they expect hot-rolled coil to dip below $750/st in 2021, while 33% of respondents expect the P1020 aluminum price to dip below $1,850/st in 2021.

The daily Platts TSI US HRC index increased by $1 to $1,300/st March 15. US prices are now more than double their 10-year average value and have risen by nearly 200% since August 2020.

The Platts US aluminum Transaction premium rose to 19.10 cents/lb, delivered Midwest, on March 15, up from 18.75 cents previously, as tight supply conditions persisted and suppliers continued to search for units.

A total of 33 companies participated in the survey, representing a broad spectrum of the industry's subsectors, company sizes, and ownership structures, Headwall said.