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Research & Insights
Metals & Mining Theme, Ferrous, Non-Ferrous
February 10, 2025
By Helios Ocana
HIGHLIGHTS
Producer respondents lead expected price increases
Distributors expect minimal price increases
Long steel inventories fall, flat products vary widely
Geopolitical uncertainty stalls investments: respondent
Mexican steel market sentiment remained bullish for the second consecutive month with an average index of price development of 53.6 despite finished steel prices keeping stable, according to the S&P Global Commodity Insights survey released on Feb. 10.
The 37 respondents to the survey included service centers, distributors, profile sellers, producers, scrap dealers, consumers and traders.
Producer respondents were expecting the largest price increases with an outstanding index of 62.5, followed by service centers respondents with an index of 58.3.
"Producers and service centers continue to attempt price increases; however, they acknowledge that low demand has made this unfeasible," a consumer respondent said. "They do not foresee an improvement during the first quarter."
Conversely, distributor respondents were expecting the least increases in price with an index of 53.18. A slight decrease from January's expectations when the index was 54.
"Persisting low demand is keeping prices stable," a distributor respondent said.
Multiple respondents reiterated the uncertainty stemming from the geopolitical situation. "Many investments are stalled until we gain clarity on the tariffs," a respondent said.
Despite a bullish price scenario, the production change index fell to 48.2 amid ongoing uncertainty. Service centers were the only respondents expecting an increase in production, with an index of 58.3.
The inventory change index rose from 43.6 in the previous month to 50.5, as most respondents did not anticipate changes in stock levels.
For long steel products, the days of stock remained short with 71.4% of respondents having 30 days or less of inventory.
Flat products' inventory days varied widely, ranging from 15 to over 75 days of stock, depending on the respondent.
The average index for raw material price development rose to 53.2 from the 46 reported in January, indicating a bullish sentiment. Producer respondents had the highest increase in expectations, with an index of 62.5.
Prices for busheling scrap were reported at Mexican Peso 5,500-6,450/mt delivered, while heavy melting scrap was reported at Peso 4,900-5,900/mt ex-works.