Electric vehicle sales likely to be mixed in 2020: Platts Analytics

Global electric-vehicle markets are likely to have mixed outcomes in 2020, with China struggling and Europe gaining momentum, according to the latest research from S&P Global Platts Analytics.

In the latest edition of EV Essentials, Platts Analytics said the Chinese EV market "continues to struggle after a jarring mid-year subsidy rollback." Sales in November 2019 fell 41%, year on year.

"Downside potential remains across 2020 as reports indicate that the Chinese central governmentis considering further subsidy cuts, looking for OEM consolidation," the report added.

By contrast, the EU plug-in market continued its bull run in November, with sales up 63% on theyear and 47% year-to-date, according to Platts Analytics data.

"Moving into 2020 we anticipate continued strength in the EU market, supported by strong emissions regulations," the report added.

UK registrations of pure-electric vehicles jumped to a record high in 2019, surging to 37,850 units, up 144% from 2018, the latest data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders showed Monday.

However, the SMMT pointed out that while the huge increase in EV demand is welcome, the 1.6% market share is "still tiny and underlines the progress needed to reach the 50%-70% share the government envisages in the next 10 years."

The drive toward EVs is being driven my strict new emissions standards, in a race to stop the world overheating and the resulting consequences that could come with it.

Late last year EU leaders agreed that the bloc must be climate-neutral by 2050, which, if implemented fully, would end its demand for fossil fuels.

This goal is more ambitious than the current non-binding EU goal to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050, and the European Commission plans to review all relevant EU legislation to see what needs to change to achieve the new target.

-- Ben Kilbey, ben.kilbey@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Jonathan Dart, jonathan.dart@spglobal.com