Thailand heatwave, limited domestic gas output to support spot LNG demand

A spate of record-high temperatures in several parts of Thailand is expected to boost energy demand and drive spot LNG imports, while domestic gas production and pipeline imports continue to face constraints, according to market analysts and industry sources.

The unexpectedly high summer temperatures in Thailand are in line with extreme weather and drought conditions in other parts of Asia like India, southern China, Taiwan and also other parts of South Asia.

The heatwaves and increasingly unpredictable weather conditions in the southern hemisphere are expected to set the floor for demand for power generation fuels in coming years, and contribute to changing trade flows, prices and fuel procurement strategies.

Thailand's 2023 summer season was expected to begin slightly later than usual around end-February and end around mid-May, with very hot weather in many areas from mid-March to late April, according to early forecasts by the Thai Meteorological Department.

However, temperatures have been rising steeply since early April and set new provincial records in the week ended April 18, the meteorological agency's data showed.

Thailand's highest temperature on record was 44.6 C registered in April 2016 in the northern province of Mae Hong Son, and hot weather has ranged between 41-43 C for most other provinces around May, according to the agency's data.

But in the past week alone, the northern areas of Bhumibol Dam recorded a maximum daily temperature of 43.8 C, Phetchabun hit 43.5 C, Thoen hit 43.2 C and Tak hit 44.6 C. Several other provinces were above the 42 C mark, data showed.

The agency said its weather outlook for the week ending April 23 is for maximum temperatures to range between 38 C and 44 C, with a risk of dry weather persisting beyond the usual summer months.

"Thailand is experiencing a severe heatwave, which is coinciding with peak LNG [demand] months from March through to May," said Huyen Trang Vu, research analyst with S&P Global Commodity Insights.

She said by chance, the heatwave had struck during the month of the annual Songkran festival in April, typically a month of weaker power demand and reduced gas demand in the power sector.

"Nevertheless, Thailand is well poised to increase LNG imports if necessary to meet the possible increased power demand. Thailand's gas plants' capacity factor historically averages 40%, indicating there is capability to increase gas utilization," Trang added.

Spot LNG

Thailand's power demand has been rising by around 2%-5% every year on the back of steady economic growth, and grew by 3.5% in 2022 to 197.3 TWh, a growth rate not seen since 2016.

Thailand's power mix is unique in Asia because unlike most of its peers in the region that rely predominantly on coal, it relies on natural gas for more than half of its power generation. Coal and imported electricity account for 15% to 20%, respectively, and renewables for around 10% or less.

For natural gas, it relies on domestic production for about 63% of its total demand, while around 16% comes from pipeline imports via Myanmar and seaborne LNG accounts for around 22% of demand, according to government data.

Since 2020, the share of domestic production has fallen sharply from over 70% as reserves have depleted and upstream investment has declined, and imports from Myanmar have also been impacted by pipeline issues and the difficult political climate that has constrained foreign investment upstream across the border. Meanwhile, the share of LNG has risen from 15% to 22% and is expected to continue to grow.

In 2022, Thailand's main LNG importer PTT continued to import spot LNG at prices over $35/MMBtu to sustain domestic demand. So far this year, it has been one of the largest spot importers on falling spot LNG prices. Platts assessed JKM for June at $12.512/MMBtu April 17.

Most recently, PTT awarded a spot LNG tender for around seven cargoes for delivery from May to July to traders and oil majors, according to Singapore-based traders. The tender closed on April 12 and market sources said one cargo for the May 28-29 window was awarded at around $11-$12/MMBtu, while two cargoes for June 19-20 and June 27-28 were awarded at around $12.5/MMBtu and two cargoes for delivery in July 1-2 and July 24-25 were awarded at around $13.5/MMBtu.

S&P Global analyst Trang said Thailand's regasification terminal capacity is at 19 million mt/year with the Map Ta Phut 2 LNG terminal turning fully operational in March.

Its three largest LNG suppliers in 2022 were Qatar, Australia and Malaysia, and even saw higher imports from the US at a time when most US cargoes had been diverted to Europe. Extreme weather will continue to see Thailand tapping the spot market for LNG supply.

"With the softer LNG spot prices in 2023 and PTTEP's proven capability, Thailand is expected to be well versed in handling incremental demand from the heat wave through procuring additional cargoes from the spot market," Trang added.